NBA · resolved market
Pelicans vs. Mavericks: O/U 225.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x289b3bfc05eaaaab515c2f1a77784ac6c71f7c7132399f4a5e7ed23197849eb1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,684
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,684 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 53c | 1,241$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.73 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 46c | 941.33$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.63 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 47c | 846$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.38 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20f5…3b1cbacked Under | 48c | 629$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce0…c5b1backed Under | 47c | 553$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.09 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x220b…147bbacked Under | 48c | 425$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…e0cfbacked Over | 53c | 419$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.07 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Under | 47c | 418.92$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.03 | 227 | 52%118 W · 109 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 409.82$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.13 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef33…7794backed Over | 52c | 358$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.16 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…0320backed Over | 52c | 267$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51e9…bec8backed Over | 52c | 232$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a21…e599backed Under | 47c | 173$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.69 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3659…7654backed Over | 52c | 129$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.08 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…e859backed Over | 53c | 122$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.66 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 51cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1188…2c2ebacked Over | 53c | 102$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.38per pick | 52cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c2f…9765backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -7.6wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x235e…5673backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 251 | 43.4%109 W · 142 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 49c | 63.71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…1663backed Over | 52c | 39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5af6…5d07backed Over | 53c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…81d8backed Over | 52c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…b2a4backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pelicans vs. Mavericks: O/U 225.5this page
- 1H Spread: Mavericks (-4.5)Pelicans won
- Pelicans vs. MavericksPelicans won
- Pelicans vs. Mavericks: O/U 226.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Mavericks: O/U 227.5Under won
- Spread: Mavericks (-6.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Mavericks (-7.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Mavericks (-8.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Mavericks (-9.5)Pelicans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.