NBA · resolved market
Pelicans vs. Mavericks: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0bc29737012bc460d0b72fa8468b97f94f4a314184e6702ba802755f6e305f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,788
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,782
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,788 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Under | 47c | 10,999$5,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,829.4 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 10,407$5,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,316.94 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x857c…cb02backed Over | 53c | 10,000$5,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,300 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 51c | 4,982$2,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,562.41 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 49c | 4,081$1,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,097.8 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad4…3c1abacked Under | 49c | 3,768$1,846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,921.66 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 48c | 3,067$1,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,588.15 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Under | 50c | 3,000$1,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,501.34 | 227 | 52%118 W · 109 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 52c | 2,840$1,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,476.8 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Under | 52c | 989.24$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.83 | 183 | 45.4%83 W · 100 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3cb…178bbacked Under | 49c | 340$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 48c | 280$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.6 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 49c | 271$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.21 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 49c | 271$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.21 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc520…3249backed Over | 51c | 187$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.37 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Over | 52c | 153.85$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…ad57backed Over | 50c | 106$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 477 | 38.2%182 W · 295 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x495c…f211backed Over | 51c | 95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ea…5491backed Under | 49c | 90$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Over | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 248 | 35.1%87 W · 161 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 50c | 69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 50c | 69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d69…6a61backed Over | 51c | 58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc4…4869backed Over | 51c | 51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 50cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25a2…7534backed Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29dc…75dabacked Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -6.8wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7e…b1e3backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbba2…eaa6backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de1…db81backed Over | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pelicans vs. Mavericks: O/U 226.5this page
- 1H Spread: Mavericks (-4.5)Pelicans won
- Pelicans vs. MavericksPelicans won
- Pelicans vs. Mavericks: O/U 225.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Mavericks: O/U 227.5Under won
- Spread: Mavericks (-6.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Mavericks (-7.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Mavericks (-8.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Mavericks (-9.5)Pelicans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.