NBA · resolved market
Pelicans vs. Mavericks: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a9ffbf9c151a1be0200194ef66276fe5540020bc63d784935a10e4bb780eb9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,090
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc933…5366backed Under | 52c | 10,500$5,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,987.66 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2635…5408backed Over | 47c | 9,878$4,643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,642.62 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 48c | 5,899$2,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,842.54 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 52c | 4,338$2,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,096.65 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 4,279$2,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,054.19 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35ac…92a7backed Under | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920 | 121 | 44.6%54 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Under | 50c | 1,260$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630.12 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 52c | 749.15$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.26 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Under | 50c | 674.07$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.04 | 193 | 51.3%99 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 53c | 479$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.13 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…ad57backed Over | 48c | 110$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b79…3c8cbacked Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 47c | 103$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Under | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c4…2221backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8a…3701backed Under | 53c | 26.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pelicans vs. Mavericks: O/U 227.5this page
- 1H Spread: Mavericks (-4.5)Pelicans won
- Pelicans vs. MavericksPelicans won
- Pelicans vs. Mavericks: O/U 225.5Under won
- Pelicans vs. Mavericks: O/U 226.5Under won
- Spread: Mavericks (-6.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Mavericks (-7.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Mavericks (-8.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Mavericks (-9.5)Pelicans won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.