Premier League · resolved market
Stoke City FC vs. Millwall FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28cd4dcceae3c67ad3204f74bae5c585b4625eb5276035fa20a4a9cba54e7de8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,689
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,961
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,689 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 27c | 1,957$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,428.9 | 118 | 28%33 W · 85 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 73c | 1,857$1,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,363.07 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 34c | 1,465$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.68 | 1,012 | 33.2%336 W · 676 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Under | 67c | 1,463$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.2 | 321 | 64.5%207 W · 114 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Under | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 31c | 888.32$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.36 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 65c | 646.4$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.96 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 35c | 632.22$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.67 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Over | 27c | 607.84$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.72 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Under | 67c | 438.9$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.06 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Over | 23c | 299.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.99 | 141 | 28.4%40 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 34c | 288.95$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.11 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 73c | 197.63$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.42 | 1,662 | 34.9%580 W · 1,082 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 78c | 148.02$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.46 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 75c | 140.92$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.69 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 74c | 96.24$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.09 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc4…3479backed Under | 67c | 90$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.8wins | -0.54per pick | 68cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 33c | 88.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.04 | 698 | 51.1%357 W · 341 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Under | 66c | 86.89$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.35 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 33c | 75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.25 | 809 | 53.6%434 W · 375 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3e…5085backed Under | 69c | 58.87$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 34c | 56.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 357 | 43.1%154 W · 203 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 70c | 55$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 31c | 55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 193 | 56%108 W · 85 L | +21.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 67c | 49.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 317 | 47.6%151 W · 166 L | -14.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 43c | 31.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 746 | 44.8%334 W · 412 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 45c | 28.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Under | 66c | 19.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Stoke City FC vs. Millwall FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Millwall FC (-1.5)Millwall FC won
- Spread: Millwall FC (-2.5)Stoke City FC won
- Stoke City FC vs. Millwall FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Stoke City FC vs. Millwall FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Stoke City FC vs. Millwall FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Stoke City FC vs. Millwall FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.