Premier League · resolved market
Stoke City FC vs. Millwall FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x68d127d2caaab69e52a0edaa1077e89cfd22883ede76f6720f885ff42cd419f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,832
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,167
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,832 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x954e…927fbacked Under | 23c | 1,000$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 20c | 878.37$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.41 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 21c | 742.11$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.98 | 1,662 | 34.9%580 W · 1,082 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…4697backed Under | 18c | 528.22$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.08 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 77c | 394.48$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.73 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 76c | 384.3$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.76 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 80c | 370.5$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 20c | 326.88$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.74 | 698 | 51.1%357 W · 341 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Under | 22c | 173.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Over | 74c | 164.23$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x267d…3852backed Under | 26c | 156.94$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 24c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 396 | 51.5%204 W · 192 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 78c | 96.43$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 20c | 63.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 809 | 53.6%434 W · 375 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 20c | 55.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 298 | 55%164 W · 134 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa230…f19fbacked Over | 75c | 53.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa72c…ec8ebacked Over | 75c | 52.53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3995…88c2backed Over | 75c | 52.53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa93e…0a8cbacked Over | 80c | 25.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Over | 78c | 25.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 189 | 61.9%117 W · 72 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Over | 78c | 25.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 80c | 15.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Stoke City FC vs. Millwall FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: Millwall FC (-1.5)Millwall FC won
- Spread: Millwall FC (-2.5)Stoke City FC won
- Stoke City FC vs. Millwall FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Stoke City FC vs. Millwall FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Stoke City FC vs. Millwall FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Stoke City FC vs. Millwall FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.