Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 75–76°F on May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28dbba9fa2f8c7dea1fe46c0148a402269f1e0da1e8f5f67ead9fac9268e22cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,432
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,432 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed Yes | 3c | 999.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 49c | 405.56$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.22 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 41c | 340$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.85 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +11.8wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 14c | 314.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.87 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…780fbacked No | 67c | 300$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.56 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed Yes | 7c | 260.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +25.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4986…8bc9backed No | 47c | 250$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…12e6backed No | 12c | 160$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.05 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd0…fcddbacked Yes | 64c | 132.04$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.9 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed No | 33c | 120$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.4 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1752…7993backed No | 52c | 89.04$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.84 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…c91ebacked No | 43c | 82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.66 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51de…c4d1backed No | 27c | 75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.86 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 67c | 62$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c4…9434backed Yes | 33c | 60.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 174 | 24.1%42 W · 132 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +153.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x917e…4ff5backed Yes | 58c | 59.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 24c | 53.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…8e24backed No | 75c | 34.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9180…ceb8backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 75–76°F on May 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 66°F or below on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 77°F or higher on May 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 69–70°F on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 71–72°F on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 73–74°F on May 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.