Mls · resolved market
Will Chicago Fire FC vs. Nashville SC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28dfe797eb93d4ad13e2cadede74325c0688a85cccf59429bb0ec920ce679602
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,684
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,505
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,684 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bba…cf14backed No | 71c | 8,655$6,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,471.43 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 28c | 6,816$1,942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,942.19 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 26c | 1,535$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.45 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 76c | 1,497$1,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.21 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbe87…6fc0backed No | 76c | 1,010$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.7 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 24c | 936.81$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.85 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed No | 71c | 873.07$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.19 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 20c | 795.8$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.26 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…02f3backed No | 71c | 793.77$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.19 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 27c | 529.61$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.71 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed Yes | 29c | 478.58$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.79 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 70c | 438.61$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.99 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…8f42backed Yes | 30c | 427.35$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.21 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 73c | 425.62$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.98 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 28c | 374.88$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.11 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 29c | 323.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.49 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 23c | 288.98$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.48 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 28c | 249.31$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.87 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 29c | 222.83$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.96 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed No | 78c | 212.89$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.89 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed Yes | 13c | 209.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 78c | 208$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.47 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 29c | 204.04$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.17 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x362a…f541backed Yes | 30c | 192.4$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Yes | 29c | 189$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.81 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fca…819abacked Yes | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 29c | 127.94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 20c | 126.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x030d…8e95backed No | 80c | 126.03$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Yes | 30c | 118$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68f…3211backed Yes | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 29c | 100.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 251 | 49%123 W · 128 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 24c | 98.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 20c | 94.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e95…2bb7backed Yes | 19c | 83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.25per pick | 43cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Yes | 30c | 79.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed No | 69c | 72.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Yes | 29c | 69.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…0b9cbacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 25c | 53.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca5e…4a1cbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…671fbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8549…41f8backed Yes | 26c | 49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8027…cf81backed Yes | 30c | 33.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32be…2b1abacked Yes | 31c | 32.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 78c | 22.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 270 | 58.9%159 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed No | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed No | 75c | 15.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed No | 75c | 13.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked No | 75c | 13.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked No | 75c | 13.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked No | 75c | 13.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Chicago Fire FC vs. Nashville SC end in a draw?this page
- Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-04-04?Yes won
- Will Nashville SC win on 2026-04-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.