MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28e254a38d03f1f9d0299f648879af47e496ed4963c0e89d59071e3b191917e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Pittsburgh Pirates, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,607
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,618
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,607 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7239…6591backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 50c | 9,255$4,609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,645.54 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 50c | 2,179$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,089.5 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 49c | 2,142$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed St. Louis Cardinals | 51c | 1,809$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.38 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed St. Louis Cardinals | 51c | 1,750$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892.36 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed St. Louis Cardinals | 50c | 1,656$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 50c | 1,528$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed St. Louis Cardinals | 50c | 1,121$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.66 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed St. Louis Cardinals | 46c | 791.84$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.61 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 38c | 666.43$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.54 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed St. Louis Cardinals | 34c | 655.61$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.23 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 79c | 600$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked St. Louis Cardinals | 50c | 553.45$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.73 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 49c | 549.72$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.36 | 237 | 52.7%125 W · 112 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6369…feb1backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ee…3b13backed St. Louis Cardinals | 53c | 484.91$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cae…4e88backed St. Louis Cardinals | 53c | 415.09$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…ccf8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 50c | 405.94$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.97 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e64…5686backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed St. Louis Cardinals | 52c | 385.9$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 959 | 50.1%480 W · 479 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked St. Louis Cardinals | 50c | 372.6$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.3 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 50c | 226.04$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.11 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 50c | 200.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.84 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…d1a7backed St. Louis Cardinals | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 50c | 160.62$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.31 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…97d0backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed St. Louis Cardinals | 50c | 76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 1,180 | 7.2%85 W · 1,095 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 52c | 59.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 254 | 52.8%134 W · 120 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 52c | 40.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…154abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 50c | 34.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 49c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff89…6b3ebacked St. Louis Cardinals | 52c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.9wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -71%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…9b0abacked St. Louis Cardinals | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 92 | 46.7%43 W · 49 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.