Earnings · resolved market
Will Apollo Global Management (APO) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x292e828c4a5582bc99daba5aaee165f70a3c9595df857c669010a6e36487867a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,530
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,553
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,530 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 8,021$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.04 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 1c | 1,018$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x470d…b463backed Yes | 53c | 628.24$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.79 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c0…be99backed No | 32c | 612.95$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.76 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 24c | 294.05$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.6 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 29c | 276.78$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.13 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked No | 41c | 224.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8916…8352backed No | 5c | 219.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdacf…8d11backed Yes | 65c | 215.58$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.93 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 21c | 214.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2a…9ee3backed No | 53c | 211.01$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8cb…8f46backed Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1544…6f27backed Yes | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 78cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23ca…9ae6backed No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 9c | 163.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 129.46$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.41 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0a…9229backed Yes | 75c | 121.32$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 115 | 66.1%76 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x902d…1f3fbacked No | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed No | 46c | 83.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.72 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked Yes | 50c | 79.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.89 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0509…6e98backed No | 27c | 77.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 203 | 31.5%64 W · 139 L | -14.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…e4e1backed No | 15c | 69.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf26e…43dcbacked No | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5817…9306backed Yes | 76c | 53.27$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…19b0backed Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 63 | 71.4%45 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f2…d478backed Yes | 80c | 34.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3029…0ab1backed Yes | 62c | 32.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 70cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0529…8909backed Yes | 77c | 30.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 75cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 49c | 29.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d27…4f3cbacked Yes | 77c | 25.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd36…9e47backed Yes | 80c | 22.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc4…0dd1backed Yes | 78c | 21.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d9…8169backed Yes | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…06b7backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.