Tennis · resolved market
Lugano: Nerman Fatic vs Alejandro Moro Canas
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2947a2a8c26ee60613fe2a7ffb19c31924e9aa28d3bbc46c65fa15f07af44630
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Canasof Fatic, Canas
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,670
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,670 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Canas | 79c | 3,250$2,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$672.5 | 143 | 43.4%62 W · 81 L | -14.5wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Fatic | 15c | 2,190$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.59 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Fatic | 25c | 1,370$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.6 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Fatic | 32c | 1,075$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.54 | 737 | 45.2%333 W · 404 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aad…20aebacked Fatic | 57c | 880.7$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 524 | 60.9%319 W · 205 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Fatic | 34c | 798$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.43 | 970 | 46.6%452 W · 518 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Fatic | 22c | 659.39$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.35 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Canas | 57c | 563.48$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.52 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Fatic | 28c | 558.65$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.68 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Fatic | 9c | 543.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.01 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Canas | 74c | 373.27$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.57 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Canas | 66c | 342.49$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.53 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd3…0d61backed Fatic | 66c | 304.79$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.24per pick | 68cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Fatic | 35c | 298$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.76 | 1,008 | 46%464 W · 544 L | -19.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Canas | 53c | 202$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.41 | 990 | 44.8%444 W · 546 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf337…609abacked Fatic | 24c | 176.22$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 90 | 16.7%15 W · 75 L | -9.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…965cbacked Canas | 53c | 160.43$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.4 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…dea4backed Fatic | 14c | 153.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…6d6bbacked Fatic | 25c | 140$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Canas | 79c | 136.27$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 290 | 63.8%185 W · 105 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Canas | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 275 | 39.6%109 W · 166 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Canas | 55c | 115.96$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.29 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Fatic | 24c | 113.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Fatic | 34c | 107$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Canas | 69c | 100.15$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 779 | 67.8%528 W · 251 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddbb…bc3abacked Fatic | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a0c…9db8backed Canas | 75c | 90.75$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 244 | 54.9%134 W · 110 L | +12.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Fatic | 40c | 87.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,615 | 50.6%817 W · 798 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Canas | 59c | 80.75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c53…3c12backed Fatic | 37c | 76.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Canas | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 1,417 | 45.2%640 W · 777 L | +41.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Fatic | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,240 | 41.2%511 W · 729 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Canas | 75c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 210 | 72.4%152 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ac…5e19backed Canas | 61c | 42.48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 219 | 57.1%125 W · 94 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6249…cee9backed Canas | 67c | 36.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…3608backed Fatic | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5e…e0f7backed Canas | 51c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca29…a1d0backed Canas | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6041…3326backed Canas | 66c | 17.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc119…7d4dbacked Canas | 75c | 15.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Canas | 70c | 14.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 275 | 46.5%128 W · 147 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lugano: Nerman Fatic vs Alejandro Moro Canasthis page
- Fatic vs. Canas: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.