College Football · resolved market
Spread: Michigan (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x296fa2488c320b78fe7e6a3be4a9aae230ddbe91898363954d25f6b1dacc0ffb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michiganof Michigan, Washington
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,789
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Michigan | 50c | 34,645$17,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,449.85 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9af…6371backed Washington | 51c | 12,774$6,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,500 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Washington | 50c | 8,830$4,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,458.16 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Washington | 50c | 7,500$3,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,750 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Washington | 51c | 5,075$2,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,585.47 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Washington | 50c | 3,821$1,911 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,910.5 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Michigan | 49c | 3,701$1,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,890.97 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Washington | 50c | 2,125$1,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062.5 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Michigan | 53c | 755$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.85 | 224 | 37.5%84 W · 140 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Michigan | 48c | 731.82$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.55 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Washington | 51c | 593.46$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…f5b6backed Michigan | 49c | 590$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.9 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed Michigan | 49c | 510.2$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.2 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Michigan | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | -10.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Michigan | 49c | 255.1$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.1 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Washington | 55c | 221.14$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.82 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Michigan | 52c | 211.54$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.54 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -26%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Michigan | 47c | 162.08$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.9 | 276 | 48.9%135 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Washington | 47c | 150$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.75 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d15…6914backed Michigan | 52c | 101.55$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.77 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff0…2e7fbacked Michigan | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Michigan | 60c | 74.34$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.74 | 154 | 51.9%80 W · 74 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Washington | 52c | 61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d4f…3d87backed Michigan | 51c | 57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.09 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Michigan | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Washington | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 160 | 44.4%71 W · 89 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Michigan | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfca9…cb3dbacked Michigan | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -7.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -46%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Michigan (-4.5)this page
- O/U 50.5Under won
- Spread: Michigan (-5.5)Michigan won
- Spread: Michigan (-6.5)Michigan won
- Washington vs. MichiganMichigan won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.