Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29781f4b2dd12ea69d9fb78f4e1758035c0e3872cc8b2b63bae17af7ce26345c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,529
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,713
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,529 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 32c | 801.48$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.69 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 29c | 352.23$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.21 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 323.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 68c | 197.16$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.38 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 30c | 173.26$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.69 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 9c | 155.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 33c | 100.4$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 100.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 67c | 96.5$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd5…d470backed No | 68c | 92.9$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 86.64$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 68c | 86.58$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.63 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…2b99backed No | 70c | 70.48$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 66c | 68.92$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.34 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 75c | 66.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 27c | 59.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d58…1725backed No | 75c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 68c | 41.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 74c | 40.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 78c | 40.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 78c | 37.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…8f33backed No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 121 | 74.4%90 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 69c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 69c | 33.37$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 60c | 31.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedec…d967backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 179 | 26.3%47 W · 132 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 71c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a2…2c18backed No | 69c | 28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec21…c83fbacked No | 74c | 27.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -8.2wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 67c | 25.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 79c | 25.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…7ef6backed No | 74c | 20.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 116 | 70.7%82 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 74c | 20.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 74c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 66c | 18.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3c…ddd0backed No | 75c | 17.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 466 | 67.6%315 W · 151 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +334.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 72c | 16.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 71c | 16.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on May 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.