TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on May 23?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,403
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,001

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,403 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8302…8b44backed Yes1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011737.6%44 W · 73 L-8.8wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-12.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed Yes30c644.22$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.2684930.6%260 W · 589 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes30c423.59$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.471,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb501…9a53backed Yes27c390.48$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.3617536%63 W · 112 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes6c323.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.286073.3%20 W · 587 L-19.0wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-54.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes27c289.83$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.3617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes13c197.4$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.615,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x29df…aeecbacked Yes27c172.09$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1514043.6%61 W · 79 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8961…ab1abacked No75c153.01$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.7625466.9%170 W · 84 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes15c150$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7520358.6%119 W · 84 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb3a…d3e3backed No71c139.99$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.995786%49 W · 8 L+11.2wins+0.20per pick66cpaid+33.5%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No46c119.99$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.192,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed No66c109.71$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.892028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes28c107.06$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6399949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes14c107$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.411,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes29c105.83$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.574,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e9…0208backed No65c103.3$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.618947.2%42 W · 47 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x932b…a773backed No37c101.04$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.1222853.1%121 W · 107 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53c5…7f34backed Yes57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573751.4%19 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed Yes53c99.46$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.941,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No74c94.99$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.84,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbae0…5cd6backed Yes29c89.84$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.271931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-39.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes57c86.9$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.1712235.2%43 W · 79 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No53c85.83$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.1912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c9e…8d54backed No70c80$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2427669.2%191 W · 85 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaafc…ec67backed Yes76c79.84$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.6644757.3%256 W · 191 L+53.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+24%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xf787…1b63backed Yes34c77.01$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9443238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes32c76.79$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.453,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No70c75.34$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.859,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cd5…d470backed No76c73.76$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.71060%6 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick43cpaid-9.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes19c70.45$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.694,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed No71c70.43$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4353437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x17e0…fe5bbacked No41c70.3$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.6131043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed No72c67.93$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.021,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed Yes32c61.59$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No26c60$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.435,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No72c51.7$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.461,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7299…a763backed No73c50.93$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9323668.2%161 W · 75 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick71cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1fc…d98abacked Yes79c50.85$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404060%24 W · 16 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0832…8681backed Yes58c50.4$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1734651.2%177 W · 169 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes76c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3824046.7%112 W · 128 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7234934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc254…1e3bbacked No69c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb55c…04eabacked No72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1420172.6%146 W · 55 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick76cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.52,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50d8…0a0ebacked No73c49$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2339968.9%275 W · 124 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick70cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No48c48.25$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.271,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes28c48$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.448,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x25ed…3e98backed Yes32c46.2$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-23.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No60c45.85$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.551,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c35…4801backed No66c45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.33056.7%17 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2232…dcd2backed Yes36c44.36$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162040%8 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No69c41.35$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.655,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No36c40$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.6488650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe256…0408backed Yes30c39.64$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123641.7%15 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd10…99b9backed No32c38.75$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.355752.6%30 W · 27 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No65c38.07$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.482,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x200e…7d37backed No69c36.78$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.256767.2%45 W · 22 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x060c…48f4backed Yes32c36$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.521533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73e7…8b59backed Yes58c35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.343441.5%180 W · 254 L+29.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xad0d…8f33backed No72c34$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5212174.4%90 W · 31 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No74c33.32$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6365965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ea…7ef6backed No71c32.95$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.6911670.7%82 W · 34 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec87…43f9backed Yes77c32.41$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256764.2%43 W · 24 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick69cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1b4…a38abacked No68c32$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.241612.5%2 W · 14 L-3.1wins-0.20per pick32cpaid-81.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No64c30.98$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.154,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No68c30.77$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.773,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x035b…c6ddbacked No72c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3325049.2%123 W · 127 L-10.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked No68c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$872837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No64c24.93$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.952,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No69c24.47$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.592,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b6b…280bbacked No58c23.82$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.94264.3%27 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick68cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ba7…3d88backed No74c23.04$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9547866.5%318 W · 160 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb423…c178backed No69c21.73$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.7426861.6%165 W · 103 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1bd…940ebacked No70c21.15$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2817071.2%121 W · 49 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f5d…3384backed No70c21.13$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.428270.2%198 W · 84 L+0.1wins0.00per pick70cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No69c19.44$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.092,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5329…fea7backed No72c18.75$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.251163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.1wins0.00per pick64cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6409…9411backed No73c17.97$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.9382562.2%513 W · 312 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No71c15.7$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.4876755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x41fa…7cc4backed No70c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.579255.2%437 W · 355 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13e0…82f9backed No73c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.0530565.9%201 W · 104 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96bc…283cbacked No72c14.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.2785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick65cpaid+45.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No79c14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.982,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32a8…be9bbacked Yes80c12.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108667.4%58 W · 28 L+10.6wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+18.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.