Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on May 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3ccd91e8a1f37c743478be30c10096d8a796d4250be9ab6cd9036643cc28fea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,001
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8302…8b44backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 117 | 37.6%44 W · 73 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed Yes | 30c | 644.22$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.26 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 30c | 423.59$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.47 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 27c | 390.48$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.36 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 323.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 289.83$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.36 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 13c | 197.4$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked Yes | 27c | 172.09$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 75c | 153.01$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3a…d3e3backed No | 71c | 139.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 57 | 86%49 W · 8 L | +11.2wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 46c | 119.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.19 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 66c | 109.71$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 28c | 107.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 14c | 107$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 29c | 105.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed No | 65c | 103.3$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.61 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 37c | 101.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.12 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53c5…7f34backed Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 53c | 99.46$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 94.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbae0…5cd6backed Yes | 29c | 89.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9caa…1a3fbacked Yes | 57c | 86.9$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.17 | 122 | 35.2%43 W · 79 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 85.83$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 76c | 79.84$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.66 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 34c | 77.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 76.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 70c | 75.34$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd5…d470backed No | 76c | 73.76$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 19c | 70.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 71c | 70.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked No | 41c | 70.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.61 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 72c | 67.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 32c | 61.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 26c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.43 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 72c | 51.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 73c | 50.93$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fc…d98abacked Yes | 79c | 50.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 58c | 50.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…1e3bbacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 73c | 49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 48c | 48.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 28c | 48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed Yes | 32c | 46.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 60c | 45.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c35…4801backed No | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…dcd2backed Yes | 36c | 44.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 69c | 41.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe256…0408backed Yes | 30c | 39.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…99b9backed No | 32c | 38.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 65c | 38.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…7d37backed No | 69c | 36.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…48f4backed Yes | 32c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 58c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…8f33backed No | 72c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 121 | 74.4%90 W · 31 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 74c | 33.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…7ef6backed No | 71c | 32.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 116 | 70.7%82 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec87…43f9backed Yes | 77c | 32.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b4…a38abacked No | 68c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 32cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 30.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 68c | 30.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 64c | 24.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 69c | 24.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6b…280bbacked No | 58c | 23.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 74c | 23.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 70c | 21.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 70c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 69c | 19.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5329…fea7backed No | 72c | 18.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 73c | 17.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 71c | 15.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96bc…283cbacked No | 72c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 65cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.98 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a8…be9bbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 86 | 67.4%58 W · 28 L | +10.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on May 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on May 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on May 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on May 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.