Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on July 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2981e00823f561aa2223a066b5b5cb067689b7a0c5de5dd0b6463974a45ff082
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,979
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,943
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,979 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed Yes | 40c | 591.07$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.05 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 70c | 314$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.79 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…ea0fbacked No | 13c | 153.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 59c | 150$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.3 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 40c | 138.92$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.85 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 50c | 133.64$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.75 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 78c | 127$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.22 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 57c | 126.48$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.03 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 57c | 126.42$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 36c | 114$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 12c | 110.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 60c | 107.36$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.95 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…b2c2backed No | 15c | 100.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 62c | 88.07$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.26 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 36c | 81.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.81 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 40c | 80.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.59 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 42c | 75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked Yes | 57c | 66.08$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 59 | 93.2%55 W · 4 L | +21.7wins | +0.37per pick | 56cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked No | 18c | 61.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 54c | 55.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 54.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bee…50ccbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 65c | 47.58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 43c | 46.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 45c | 46.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 64c | 46.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6784…7565backed No | 59c | 46.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 45.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 42.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 44c | 42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffcd…1666backed No | 64c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf993…ad52backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 57c | 39.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 28c | 38.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 56c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 54c | 34.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 37c | 33.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 59c | 33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 72c | 32.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.01 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 62c | 31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd2…87c9backed No | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 56c | 29.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a43…340fbacked Yes | 44c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 62c | 24.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 64c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 61c | 19.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 78c | 18.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes | 78c | 17.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 352 | 64.8%228 W · 124 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 63c | 17.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 68c | 17.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 136 | 72.1%98 W · 38 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C on July 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 6°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 7°C on July 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C on July 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.