Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. FC Porto end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2998564b6902b9e6054024f2ec0c70c701150fcf8d5368b7f4f6d17b44a2ebc0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,695
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,951
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,695 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5422…a780backed Yes | 26c | 1,564$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…534ebacked No | 71c | 1,408$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 68c | 1,273$862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.98 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 29c | 1,224$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.96 | 330 | 55.2%182 W · 148 L | +21.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed No | 76c | 975.5$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.85 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x709a…52e5backed Yes | 30c | 800$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7540…46dbbacked No | 70c | 800$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 69c | 520.75$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.78 | 151 | 51%77 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41c5…7d0ebacked Yes | 31c | 483.87$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 70c | 441.75$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.19 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1edcbacked Yes | 31c | 413.06$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.05 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 29c | 281.69$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.69 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0521…cc4abacked No | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa455…36bcbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…99febacked Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x675a…0551backed Yes | 31c | 159.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ef…0cd8backed Yes | 32c | 158.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Yes | 29c | 158.03$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 75 | 33.3%25 W · 50 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b8…5299backed Yes | 24c | 151.92$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 29c | 145.81$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.28 | 197 | 36%71 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac95…5f12backed No | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 274 | 37.2%102 W · 172 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4caf…6de9backed Yes | 26c | 127.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Yes | 27c | 98.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…5e10backed Yes | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Yes | 30c | 86.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 115 | 36.5%42 W · 73 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 70c | 72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 118 | 69.5%82 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb32e…a46abacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3520…f128backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 47cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e5…c3d4backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ab…2078backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28fa…d69bbacked No | 71c | 63.38$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x823c…524dbacked Yes | 31c | 48.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6410…ee60backed Yes | 31c | 45.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf73…4d4abacked No | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b06…b091backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. FC Porto end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Porto win on 2025-10-23?No won
- Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2025-10-23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.