Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 5°C on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2998c5e6982d08aadefc67d2f5cf66524412d6196a234dbb85f1a80c53bd92ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,374
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,072
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,374 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf34…063ebacked Yes | 19c | 268.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 7c | 199.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 55c | 191.95$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.56 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…f17cbacked Yes | 61c | 178.75$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.2 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed No | 53c | 169.67$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.41 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f76…6cd3backed Yes | 65c | 153.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 70c | 144.35$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 76c | 124.92$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 122.98$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 12c | 101.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 97.21$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.19 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 68c | 93.75$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 37c | 90$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 56c | 86.39$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 14c | 82.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 23c | 82.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x592e…2030backed Yes | 14c | 80.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 18c | 80.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 80c | 55.55$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 25c | 55.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 22c | 54.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 39c | 52.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2575…a354backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 29c | 36.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…7392backed Yes | 50c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 68c | 29.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c2b…d0d4backed No | 38c | 27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 78c | 24.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00d7…a7fdbacked Yes | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d7…7c87backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.17per pick | 69cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41fc…a467backed No | 52c | 19.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 76c | 16.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 5°C on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C or higher on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 2°C or below on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on April 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 6°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.