Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98f546f29ed1761dd608d4707c81a362ed736a260a80085a7fed7906d3905ac8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,811
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,811 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 509.84$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e6…8fcabacked Yes | 27c | 421.72$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.1 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed Yes | 34c | 346.42$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.08 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…7392backed Yes | 80c | 289.92$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.43 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 40c | 248.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.09 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes | 79c | 223.76$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.97 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 16c | 166.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b34…74a3backed Yes | 8c | 165$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.4 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 9c | 160.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.94 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 27c | 152.63$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed Yes | 71c | 140.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.39 | 70 | 70%49 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 36c | 130.33$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…f17cbacked Yes | 12c | 122.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.2 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 70c | 107.17$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.91 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22be…ba43backed Yes | 79c | 101.38$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 12c | 88.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.77 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3b…22aebacked No | 30c | 88.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 46c | 79.79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.95 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8947…4635backed Yes | 78c | 70.63$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +6.1wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x76f7…d7cdbacked Yes | 73c | 68.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 61c | 66.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 71c | 63.12$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 70c | 55.65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 77c | 48.22$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 27c | 42.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6e…a704backed No | 35c | 38.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x113d…a5e6backed No | 51c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 24.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked Yes | 75c | 22.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41fc…a467backed No | 73c | 18.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd36d…0a31backed Yes | 67c | 16.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C or higher on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 2°C or below on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 5°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 6°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.