Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 6°C on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72435c3be4264ad434f6539486c145dd76be6ba73dc001ab5aa5a81780d6dc99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,440
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed Yes | 2c | 638.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed Yes | 7c | 500.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 7c | 400$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 41c | 218.13$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.12 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 135.35$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.08 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 69c | 100.91$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 16c | 99.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 39c | 89.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2983…cedfbacked Yes | 40c | 80.33$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7b…ddfebacked No | 73c | 76.41$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 67cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 18c | 73.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 56c | 66.53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0820…4b09backed Yes | 49c | 61.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +46%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 50c | 60.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 43c | 56.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 56.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 42c | 50.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda2e…9b6cbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabee…ab7dbacked No | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 62c | 48.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 55c | 43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 50c | 40.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 60c | 38.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 40c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 62c | 32.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 41c | 30.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7444…d815backed No | 56c | 22.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 58c | 22.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41fc…a467backed No | 74c | 18.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 6°C on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 10°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 12°C or higher on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 2°C or below on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on April 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 5°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.