TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Valorant · resolved market

Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Karmine Corpof NRG, Karmine Corp
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$9,430
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,791

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,430 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Valorant
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6d3c…d294backed Karmine Corp58c3,813$2,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,602.822346.6%104 W · 119 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdec6…1d8ebacked Karmine Corp60c2,000$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8003855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked NRG40c1,937$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774.9516347.2%77 W · 86 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked NRG41c1,850$759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758.51,41751.3%727 W · 690 L+49.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked Karmine Corp59c919.04$541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37855152.5%289 W · 262 L+20.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39c9…7debbacked NRG41c609.76$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2506050%30 W · 30 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+12.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed NRG43c527.22$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.723745.1%107 W · 130 L-12.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf66e…14b7backed NRG43c370$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.110349.5%51 W · 52 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09da…50bcbacked NRG43c359.02$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.3810846.3%50 W · 58 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3b…5fa5backed Karmine Corp57c261.14$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.1423463.7%149 W · 85 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked NRG42c258.93$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.59340.9%38 W · 55 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf04…ad65backed NRG52c241.35$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.8328541.1%117 W · 168 L-26.4wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-18.7%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Karmine Corp58c233.91$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.2413661%83 W · 53 L+14.8wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+24.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa245…2152backed NRG39c208.19$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.191442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0cb…85babacked Karmine Corp61c200$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$784553.3%24 W · 21 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+19.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e43…0306backed Karmine Corp48c193.23$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.565520%11 W · 44 L-11.5wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-57%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xac1a…8689backed NRG43c185$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.553542.9%15 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6701…d7d2backed NRG42c185$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.75648.2%27 W · 29 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked NRG43c174.42$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7515842.4%67 W · 91 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-18.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe32a…cd33backed NRG43c167.39$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.6343059.8%257 W · 173 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x72be…c534backed Karmine Corp61c163.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.8510225.5%26 W · 76 L-10.8wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-37.4%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x4a5e…8fd0backed NRG41c158.54$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657050%35 W · 35 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-15.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa19d…3909backed NRG62c158.53$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.2917349.7%86 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7de3…d59bbacked NRG39c150$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.56347.6%30 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bf3…4f00backed NRG53c135.7$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.566453.1%34 W · 30 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bce…2379backed Karmine Corp38c128.32$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.621050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+24.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked NRG39c114.75$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7526450%132 W · 132 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f30…3aeebacked Karmine Corp61c114.75$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.751952.6%10 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick62cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x113f…ae4dbacked NRG41c92.48$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.922828.6%8 W · 20 L-4.5wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-52.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x95e9…67b6backed NRG40c82.5$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310548.6%51 W · 54 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcdbd…d0dfbacked NRG44c73$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.122642.3%11 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3537…3b51backed NRG41c65.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.068444%37 W · 47 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc593…ea8cbacked NRG43c65$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.953844.7%17 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19e5…dd71backed NRG43c58.74$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.264153.7%22 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed NRG43c58$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.949651%49 W · 47 L-8.4wins-0.09per pick60cpaid-17.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6d9c…5369backed Karmine Corp59c42.37$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.37785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.25per pick61cpaid+47.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2abe…6e2dbacked NRG52c36.63$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.06580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+26.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1715…a049backed Karmine Corp60c33.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.43333.3%11 W · 22 L-7.1wins-0.21per pick55cpaid-46.7%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xd565…d785backed Karmine Corp62c32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127352.1%38 W · 35 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe83a…8355backed NRG50c29.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154660.9%28 W · 18 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+13.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5663…f2e5backed NRG43c28.23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.142347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bbf…49c1backed NRG42c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51040%4 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick44cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Karmine Corp58c20.98$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7149255.3%272 W · 220 L+23.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x24f5…98d2backed Karmine Corp59c18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.383557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.