MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29d5a6fde14421db9f80edcd42385536a3c5df4675e0e3caac4c59862973a3fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,733
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,733 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 55c | 6,811$3,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,746.05 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb3…8ed1backed Over | 44c | 6,765$2,977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,788.29 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc03…1548backed Under | 56c | 4,307$2,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,412.02 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 45c | 3,000$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,650 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd8…f306backed Over | 45c | 2,061$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,132.7 | 192 | 52.6%101 W · 91 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 45c | 1,422$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.82 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 43c | 714.04$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7851…d471backed Under | 57c | 584.52$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.18 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Under | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Over | 46c | 313.81$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.64 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 178.97$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.03 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1c…0be3backed Under | 57c | 111.09$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.32 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 44c | 107.87$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.08 | 134 | 39.6%53 W · 81 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Over | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e3…ff82backed Over | 47c | 72.94$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.66 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 44c | 66.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 52c | 63.55$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Under | 56c | 58.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Over | 44c | 56.8$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 50c | 50.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Over | 44c | 49.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 167 | 61.7%103 W · 64 L | +15.8wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 47.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de4…95d2backed Over | 44c | 43.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Over | 43c | 41.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Over | 44c | 39.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Under | 44c | 39.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Under | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 58c | 35.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8858…ed3ebacked Under | 58c | 33.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed Over | 44c | 32.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 68c | 32.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 46c | 31.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 61c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…3170backed Under | 54c | 28.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 57c | 27.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 55c | 25.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 874 | 53%463 W · 411 L | +16.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1,374 | 54.2%745 W · 629 L | +16.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 13.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 14.5Under won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Toronto Blue Jays won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.