MLB · resolved market
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7a0099096b81a523e1335714f7e5661741eb25e0f95349e573aa07e29e11221
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toronto Blue Jaysof Toronto Blue Jays, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,506
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,486
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,506 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 4,544$1,727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,817.3 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 1,500$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…9a7ebacked Minnesota Twins | 62c | 1,466$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 822.65$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.14 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Minnesota Twins | 40c | 291.2$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.74 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Minnesota Twins | 30c | 288.91$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.46 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 251.1$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.01 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Minnesota Twins | 62c | 248.3$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.95 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 184.75$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.54 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 177.36$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.96 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 177.36$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.96 | 405 | 54.8%222 W · 183 L | +17.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 177.36$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.96 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 177.36$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.96 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 177.36$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.96 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Minnesota Twins | 62c | 177.36$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.96 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…b22ebacked Minnesota Twins | 62c | 177.36$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.96 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 177.36$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.96 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…aadebacked Minnesota Twins | 62c | 177.36$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.96 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 177.36$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.96 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 177.36$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.96 | 157 | 53.5%84 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…b25ebacked Minnesota Twins | 62c | 173.93$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.83 | 133 | 61.7%82 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 167.96$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.14 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Minnesota Twins | 62c | 167.96$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.14 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Minnesota Twins | 62c | 167.96$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.14 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 157.61$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.72 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x659f…04e4backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 157.61$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.72 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 157.61$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.72 | 1,212 | 50%606 W · 606 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 157.61$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.72 | 126 | 56.3%71 W · 55 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 157.61$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.72 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04eb…f50dbacked Minnesota Twins | 62c | 151.91$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.18 | 187 | 54%101 W · 86 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Toronto Blue Jays | 51c | 105.76$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.34 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Minnesota Twins | 62c | 78.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 78.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 155 | 52.3%81 W · 74 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Minnesota Twins | 62c | 78.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.86 | 294 | 50.7%149 W · 145 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 77.04$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.57 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 71.26$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 335 | 47.5%159 W · 176 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033b…5e3fbacked Minnesota Twins | 62c | 70.94$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 58.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.51 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 29c | 56.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.97 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Minnesota Twins | 62c | 55.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 238 | 51.3%122 W · 116 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 54.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 307 | 50.2%154 W · 153 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Minnesota Twins | 65c | 49.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 167 | 61.7%103 W · 64 L | +15.8wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3323…f667backed Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 49.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7307…b257backed Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 48.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 48.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 48.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 44.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Minnesota Twins | 61c | 44.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17a3…8cb3backed Toronto Blue Jays | 40c | 42.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Minnesota Twins | 62c | 42.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb4…4039backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 41.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c6…7ff9backed Toronto Blue Jays | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.2wins | -0.29per pick | 47cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Minnesota Twins | 41c | 39.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 74c | 39.39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 35c | 33.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 483 | 43.3%209 W · 274 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86f3…685cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 39c | 28.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 23.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 283 | 52.3%148 W · 135 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 11.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 13.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 14.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Toronto Blue JaysYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.