Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29dbedd417d61a1df39fef852f0fc1cae37943221af6129b39beb3deac1d2be6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,566
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf4ee…e1acbacked No | 67c | 891.91$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.19 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48dc…813bbacked Yes | 9c | 823.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.1 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 44c | 389.03$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.2 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 35c | 238.32$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.26 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4c…830abacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 46c | 198.34$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.4 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbec…5088backed Yes | 78c | 154.13$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 26c | 148.74$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.53 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 148.06$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ead…b7bfbacked No | 37c | 133.23$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.23 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | +7.1wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 43c | 128.82$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.92 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.89 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed No | 22c | 116.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.49 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 74c | 111$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.14 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x346e…3c06backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5546…c8cebacked No | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.99 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…eef3backed Yes | 51c | 98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 53c | 96.01$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.77 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked No | 48c | 84.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.04 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 47c | 84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…8e95backed No | 58c | 82.74$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 54c | 76$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 38c | 72.72$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.43 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 29c | 66.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.54 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 51c | 65.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 32c | 65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 48c | 62.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 19c | 62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.27 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 25c | 61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.89 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed Yes | 68c | 57.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 77c | 55.87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x661e…070cbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 67c | 49.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 43c | 49.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 36c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 45c | 44.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 60c | 41.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 49c | 37.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 37c | 36.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.37 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 50c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 59c | 34.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 55c | 30.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed No | 75c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 59c | 29.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 60c | 29.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 43c | 28.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 48c | 24.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 58c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…09d3backed No | 50c | 21.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 53c | 19.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a1…4ca0backed Yes | 80c | 18.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…3ca5backed No | 73c | 17.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 61c | 17.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 63c | 16.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.