NBA · resolved market
Timberwolves vs. Hornets: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29ec7eff3f7fa1a7e3253c8488836ef510b526d0892e8c4e9ca1d0d6832be81a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,277
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,277 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ad4…3c1abacked Over | 49c | 7,777$3,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,810.73 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Under | 51c | 7,514$3,832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,681.83 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 48c | 1,167$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.82 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 51c | 1,022$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.57 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 843.27$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.5 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x087a…a510backed Over | 53c | 750.34$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Over | 51c | 504$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.04 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e9…ac60backed Under | 51c | 250$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0944…6771backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 50c | 192.95$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.62 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7543…bf2bbacked Over | 75c | 149.57$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 68cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Over | 49c | 116.94$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.3 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 45c | 108.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.75 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbba2…eaa6backed Over | 52c | 95.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…1f92backed Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164d…8893backed Over | 54c | 36.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Timberwolves vs. Hornets: O/U 229.5this page
- Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. HornetsTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Hornets: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Timberwolves vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Hornets: O/U 228.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Hornets: O/U 231.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Hornets: O/U 234.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Hornets: O/U 235.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.