NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3106d7baad33acbbfdc3e1083c00e116750793904fa28fb6c74827bcdd7c1cc7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Timberwolves, Hornets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,002
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Timberwolves | 48c | 7,179$3,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,733.26 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Hornets | 51c | 5,452$2,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,769.04 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hornets | 51c | 4,060$2,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,089.74 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Timberwolves | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Hornets | 50c | 2,999$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.7 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 1,110$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Hornets | 52c | 973.74$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.34 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Timberwolves | 49c | 658.31$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.03 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Hornets | 52c | 500$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.5 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Timberwolves | 54c | 484$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.64 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb22…ce57backed Timberwolves | 49c | 302.04$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.04 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2791…2791backed Timberwolves | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Timberwolves | 53c | 204.32$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.27 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Hornets | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 661 | 53.3%352 W · 309 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Hornets | 47c | 156$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.32 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…2c36backed Hornets | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…da60backed Hornets | 52c | 115$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Timberwolves | 53c | 93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.71 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x787c…7ae2backed Timberwolves | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Hornets | 49c | 38.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Hornets | 44c | 35.81$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc538…484abacked Timberwolves | 51c | 33.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)this page
- Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. HornetsTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Hornets: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Timberwolves vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Hornets: O/U 228.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Hornets: O/U 229.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Hornets: O/U 231.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Hornets: O/U 234.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Hornets: O/U 235.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.