NBA · resolved market
Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe86219c33ee2192eca37dc8839276d702d8f6c77c80a6aa9bb0a83d1c450f49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Timberwolves, Hornets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,359
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,421
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,359 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Timberwolves | 51c | 4,089$2,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,003.61 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves | 47c | 3,617$1,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,921.16 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Hornets | 54c | 3,000$1,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,620 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Hornets | 54c | 2,683$1,449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,448.81 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hornets | 50c | 1,265$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.04 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Hornets | 55c | 1,255$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.51 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Timberwolves | 46c | 1,043$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.48 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…821cbacked Hornets | 51c | 784.31$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Timberwolves | 48c | 500$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.82 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Hornets | 53c | 496.39$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.92 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Hornets | 51c | 430$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.3 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Timberwolves | 46c | 428$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.85 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Timberwolves | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Hornets | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Hornets | 49c | 282.45$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.4 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba50…ad0bbacked Hornets | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 240 | 55.4%133 W · 107 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Timberwolves | 49c | 127$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.77 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Hornets | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Hornets | 51c | 56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Timberwolves | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Timberwolves | 56c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf6…5b0bbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 24.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…3183backed Timberwolves | 51c | 22.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Hornets | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1,113 | 41.6%463 W · 650 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc264…eb32backed Timberwolves | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…3ca6backed Timberwolves | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17a3…8dadbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -6.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2337…3a2cbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e1…61edbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b83…ed1dbacked Timberwolves | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9816…28a7backed Timberwolves | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Timberwolves (-5.5)this page
- Spread: Timberwolves (-4.5)Timberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. HornetsTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Hornets: 1H MoneylineHornets won
- Timberwolves vs. Hornets: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Hornets: O/U 228.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Hornets: O/U 229.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Hornets: O/U 230.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Hornets: O/U 231.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Hornets: O/U 233.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Hornets: O/U 234.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Hornets: O/U 235.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.