Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Feyenoord vs. Aston Villa end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a00ebdcf81828123e0b8b2b6970b71057fbad15b57d6732403c3dc815ee6d0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,255
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d56…c0d8backed No | 73c | 10,006$7,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,701.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5019…7d1fbacked Yes | 27c | 10,001$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 10c | 3,067$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.63 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 72c | 2,000$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.99 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 75c | 1,717$1,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.92 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 27c | 1,493$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.11 | 151 | 51%77 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Yes | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…b6e8backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 69c | 700$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 72c | 400$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 122 | 69.7%85 W · 37 L | +14.5wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…44a2backed Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 27c | 350$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Yes | 17c | 210$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 200 | 42%84 W · 116 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4944…e4c7backed Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -5.2wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x671f…af9cbacked Yes | 28c | 176.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…30bcbacked Yes | 28c | 171.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.02 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7272…7135backed Yes | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 72c | 131.57$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb4…0c34backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 147 | 33.3%49 W · 98 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…87c2backed Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked Yes | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc450…f2f7backed No | 73c | 75.34$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 274 | 37.2%102 W · 172 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1092…28d7backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8034…2463backed Yes | 28c | 70.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de9…4ab1backed Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 73c | 69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 118 | 69.5%82 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a3…2943backed No | 73c | 43.45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ff…3eafbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed9…bbd3backed No | 71c | 33.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 76c | 33.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Feyenoord vs. Aston Villa end in a draw?this page
- Will Aston Villa win on 2025-10-02?Yes won
- Will Feyenoord win on 2025-10-02?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.