South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a04f1c860e75a8d6227137ff6040d8f4ee114d70f0a51dae5068b4d6681d765
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Montevideo City Torqueof Grêmio FBPA, Montevideo City Torque
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,426
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,445
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,426 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb22…6478backed Montevideo City Torque | 66c | 19,941$13,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,779.88 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Grêmio FBPA | 34c | 5,037$1,712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,712.46 | 335 | 60.9%204 W · 131 L | +18.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Grêmio FBPA | 34c | 5,037$1,712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,712.46 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Grêmio FBPA | 34c | 5,004$1,701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,701.36 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Grêmio FBPA | 34c | 1,727$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.13 | 477 | 56%267 W · 210 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Montevideo City Torque | 64c | 1,170$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.66 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Grêmio FBPA | 35c | 1,075$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.24 | 218 | 44.5%97 W · 121 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Grêmio FBPA | 16c | 903.42$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.55 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0a16…9d73backed Grêmio FBPA | 34c | 710.97$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.73 | 104 | 50%52 W · 52 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Grêmio FBPA | 34c | 498.38$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.45 | 129 | 45%58 W · 71 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Grêmio FBPA | 12c | 406.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.81 | 217 | 65.4%142 W · 75 L | +24.1wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Grêmio FBPA | 35c | 349.01$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.15 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Grêmio FBPA | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Montevideo City Torque | 72c | 236$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.08 | 97 | 63.9%62 W · 35 L | +13.3wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Grêmio FBPA | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | -7.6wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7a…0f82backed Grêmio FBPA | 38c | 180$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -5.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Montevideo City Torque | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 317 | 45.1%143 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e2…d3abbacked Grêmio FBPA | 33c | 149.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 124 | 14.5%18 W · 106 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Grêmio FBPA | 34c | 129.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Montevideo City Torque | 61c | 125$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Grêmio FBPA | 34c | 124.53$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc46e…9ed8backed Grêmio FBPA | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +7.4wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Grêmio FBPA | 34c | 117.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 77 | 61%47 W · 30 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Grêmio FBPA | 34c | 106$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.04 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Montevideo City Torque | 59c | 101.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 1,355 | 49.7%674 W · 681 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0286…9648backed Grêmio FBPA | 38c | 97.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Grêmio FBPA | 35c | 93.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f76…3c44backed Grêmio FBPA | 34c | 83.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Grêmio FBPA | 34c | 74.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 449 | 59%265 W · 184 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Grêmio FBPA | 34c | 73.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 261 | 60.9%159 W · 102 L | +20.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…8cebbacked Grêmio FBPA | 34c | 52.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Grêmio FBPA | 34c | 41.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 188 | 59%111 W · 77 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…8de4backed Grêmio FBPA | 34c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ac…e602backed Grêmio FBPA | 34c | 29.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Grêmio FBPA | 39c | 27.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8340…b29bbacked Montevideo City Torque | 66c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Montevideo City Torque | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 424 | 62.3%264 W · 160 L | +24.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x967b…46babacked Montevideo City Torque | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Montevideo City Torque | 65c | 18.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 286 | 65%186 W · 100 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd074…5a54backed Montevideo City Torque | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 44 | 84.1%37 W · 7 L | +5.8wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-1.5)this page
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Montevideo City Torque: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Montevideo City Torque: O/U 1.5Over won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Montevideo City Torque: O/U 2.5Over won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Montevideo City Torque: O/U 3.5Over won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Montevideo City Torque: O/U 4.5Under won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Montevideo City Torque: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Montevideo City Torque (-1.5)Grêmio FBPA won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.