South American Leagues · resolved market
Grêmio FBPA vs. Montevideo City Torque: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x95a7e9ebe6622536088df702d6fa8ebccb3cfcb3bfcc3458408e4685b703c53a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,253
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,553
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,253 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 68c | 2,816$1,902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,901.95 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked Over | 24c | 2,729$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,068.12 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 78c | 2,333$1,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,818.95 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Over | 33c | 1,584$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.49 | 97 | 63.9%62 W · 35 L | +13.3wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 38c | 1,045$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.1 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 16c | 873.9$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.9 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 15c | 827.36$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.31 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 78c | 785.91$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.36 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28e2…d3abbacked Over | 25c | 400$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 124 | 14.5%18 W · 106 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Under | 75c | 350.77$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.08 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…5998backed Over | 38c | 344.63$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.96 | 174 | 40.2%70 W · 104 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf83…3385backed Under | 61c | 343.55$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.16 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Over | 19c | 300$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 24c | 299.95$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.96 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Under | 76c | 271.54$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.09 | 332 | 66.3%220 W · 112 L | +24.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf0…72cebacked Over | 72c | 264.95$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 75c | 125$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.25 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 416 | 54.3%226 W · 190 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…eee6backed Under | 76c | 52.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b53…95c4backed Over | 28c | 38.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 78c | 30.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 76c | 24.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 278 | 55.4%154 W · 124 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50e…45c5backed Over | 46c | 22.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 62c | 22.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09b6…d33ebacked Under | 80c | 22.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Under | 75c | 21.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 286 | 65%186 W · 100 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Under | 75c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a9…5c31backed Under | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 47 | 70.2%33 W · 14 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Montevideo City Torque: O/U 3.5this page
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Montevideo City Torque: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Montevideo City Torque: O/U 1.5Over won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Montevideo City Torque: O/U 2.5Over won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Montevideo City Torque: O/U 4.5Under won
- Grêmio FBPA vs. Montevideo City Torque: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Grêmio FBPA (-1.5)Montevideo City Torque won
- Spread: Montevideo City Torque (-1.5)Grêmio FBPA won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.