Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Kalinina (-1.5) vs Carle (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a1196a6a23daef9f210495e7d3ffcbd6eb3ec22a5c25f824d8efec04cd9eafe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kalininaof Kalinina, Carle
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,974
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,974 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ca4…348fbacked Kalinina | 79c | 2,000$1,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.98 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f03…766dbacked Kalinina | 62c | 1,938$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.79 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Carle | 38c | 1,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 264 | 41.7%110 W · 154 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Carle | 38c | 794.79$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.02 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Kalinina | 72c | 445.35$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.05 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Carle | 34c | 303.11$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.06 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…bebdbacked Kalinina | 66c | 265$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.1 | 347 | 48.1%167 W · 180 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…3d8cbacked Carle | 23c | 253.78$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 92 | 32.6%30 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Carle | 21c | 252.38$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26fb…67b8backed Kalinina | 61c | 243.97$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.55 | 651 | 57.1%372 W · 279 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Carle | 21c | 242.86$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Kalinina | 58c | 225.39$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.31 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Carle | 21c | 214.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Carle | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…fb66backed Carle | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.9 | 536 | 44.8%240 W · 296 L | -20.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1e…f992backed Carle | 21c | 157.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 654 | 34.9%228 W · 426 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Carle | 39c | 153$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.67 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…5551backed Kalinina | 61c | 152.9$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.47 | 903 | 35.8%323 W · 580 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Carle | 39c | 143$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.77 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Carle | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 925 | 54.8%507 W · 418 L | +15.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Carle | 21c | 133.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 942 | 55.8%526 W · 416 L | +19.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Carle | 42c | 88.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Carle | 21c | 87.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 1,021 | 49.8%508 W · 513 L | +42.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…5112backed Kalinina | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 98 | 61.2%60 W · 38 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Carle | 36c | 77.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…3e7abacked Kalinina | 64c | 77.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 848 | 57.4%487 W · 361 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Carle | 39c | 73.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Carle | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,008 | 38.3%386 W · 622 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc475…8eefbacked Kalinina | 58c | 51.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed Carle | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 814 | 57%464 W · 350 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82b0…7c38backed Kalinina | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 359 | 55.7%200 W · 159 L | +20.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Kalinina | 66c | 38.11$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 374 | 36.4%136 W · 238 L | -16.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f64…3633backed Kalinina | 57c | 36.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 992 | 49.4%490 W · 502 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Carle | 41c | 32.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 425 | 45.6%194 W · 231 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Carle | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed Kalinina | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 643 | 58.8%378 W · 265 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Kalinina (-1.5) vs Carle (+1.5)this page
- Hamburg European Open: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Anhelina KalininaAnhelina Kalinina won
- Set 1 Winner: Carle vs KalininaKalinina won
- Set 2 Winner: Carle vs KalininaKalinina won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.