Australian A League · resolved market
Will Wellington Phoenix FC win on 2026-02-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a2ad197037a3ed1f2a1fbfa9bcfb22ca013575773611f46dfee428cc6f04f63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,813
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,813 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xada5…db70backed Yes | 21c | 4,139$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.49 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 19c | 3,170$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.51 | 139 | 33.8%47 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed Yes | 16c | 1,470$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.26 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8479…37f8backed Yes | 21c | 1,130$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.67 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 21c | 1,020$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.03 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…58e4backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 8c | 800$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa42…2ff3backed Yes | 4c | 707.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 2c | 653.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x220f…5476backed Yes | 2c | 501.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0126…e11abacked Yes | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 10c | 483.14$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 17c | 458.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.75 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Yes | 19c | 454$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.64 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Yes | 5c | 450$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Yes | 19c | 431$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.51 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 79c | 378.43$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.49 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…5c69backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc61a…c00cbacked Yes | 14c | 296.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 8c | 284.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes | 15c | 266.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fae…688abacked Yes | 17c | 240.48$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 15c | 239.27$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Yes | 11c | 231$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b4…f6d1backed Yes | 15c | 201$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858d…9d9fbacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +91.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 18c | 185.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Yes | 11c | 170.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 20c | 160.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…5c31backed Yes | 20c | 155$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Yes | 22c | 137.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b9…948abacked Yes | 21c | 120.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed No | 80c | 105.55$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd785…0d7ebacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…5b77backed Yes | 15c | 92.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ace…6f42backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c0…c187backed No | 80c | 16.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Wellington Phoenix FC win on 2026-02-13?this page
- Will Western Sydney Wanderers FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Western Sydney Wanderers FC win on 2026-02-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.