Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a417604766d079eeb4ee76a08abce87f789d6527c295285093390bc48f2ca20
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,526
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,426
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,526 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9548…655fbacked Yes | 35c | 1,421$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.7 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -59%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked No | 80c | 497.2$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.32 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bba…a69fbacked Yes | 13c | 360.59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 10c | 311.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 37c | 310.7$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.8 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 22c | 206.43$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 78c | 171.32$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.15 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 164.41$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked No | 72c | 162.81$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…717ebacked No | 66c | 154.59$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.56 | 64 | 71.9%46 W · 18 L | +10.8wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 14c | 152.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 26c | 146.78$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed No | 63c | 146.4$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.6 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 67c | 133.64$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.64 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 122.06$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 30c | 121.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 65c | 120$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…c377backed Yes | 21c | 114.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 70c | 112.4$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.24 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda66…4aeebacked No | 72c | 105.81$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 14c | 105.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.25 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 98.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 22c | 64.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked Yes | 16c | 64.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 16c | 62.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 74c | 61.77$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…80aabacked No | 54c | 50.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 54 | 68.5%37 W · 17 L | +13.2wins | +0.24per pick | 44cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 68c | 50.14$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 73c | 48.8$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 22c | 47.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 59c | 43.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 30c | 43.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 27c | 43.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 66c | 43.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…1ca6backed No | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +12.8wins | +0.32per pick | 38cpaid | +122%equal weight | 72+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 37.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 63c | 35.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 62c | 31.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 75c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd705…c09abacked Yes | 41c | 24.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb2…0c7abacked No | 76c | 20.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +142.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 77c | 20.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7d…10fcbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.