Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b011e7561a59798974005cdea3697cdb4fff57a40fc9dfc5395b7b14d10da07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,393
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,272
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,393 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 26c | 318.4$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.44 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked No | 5c | 314.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…93f5backed Yes | 77c | 259.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.95 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf362…0505backed Yes | 79c | 253.31$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.31 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 48c | 231.17$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.19 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 9c | 193.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 46c | 170.91$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.4 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 56c | 167.86$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.86 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 15c | 151.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 19c | 151.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c99…3ef0backed No | 29c | 142.45$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.94 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 58c | 141.68$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.75 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 45c | 133.64$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.49 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 56c | 125.27$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.27 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.1 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 60c | 114.2$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.52 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 51c | 104.81$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.85 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 36c | 104.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…e5b5backed No | 16c | 101.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 91.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…717ebacked Yes | 66c | 78.25$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.3 | 64 | 71.9%46 W · 18 L | +10.8wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…9356backed Yes | 57c | 76.82$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 133 | 44.4%59 W · 74 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 22c | 76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…6ea0backed No | 54c | 74.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 48c | 65.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 36c | 65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 48c | 63.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 47c | 61.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 69c | 58.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed Yes | 53c | 56.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e94…5b9dbacked Yes | 54c | 56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 35c | 53.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 44c | 51.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 60c | 50.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.91 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 39c | 48.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 49c | 43.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 45c | 42.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 48c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 75c | 40.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffa2…1c7fbacked Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 36c | 39.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 55c | 39.75$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 43c | 39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.32 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 44c | 36.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 55c | 36.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 59c | 33.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9f…56f6backed No | 45c | 32.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 44c | 32.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53db…1635backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 55c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8959…1db2backed Yes | 42c | 27.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 54c | 26.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 48c | 26.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 69c | 25.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39da…5318backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 24.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…8969backed Yes | 50c | 24.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 64c | 22.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61b8…e749backed Yes | 55c | 22.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.07 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 51c | 21.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 57c | 20.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b7…847cbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 60c | 19.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 56c | 18.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.37 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8990…38adbacked Yes | 59c | 17.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.