Us Politics · resolved market
Will Donald Trump issue less than 25 executive orders in his first week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a61d8c119b55a6e02fb0882bd4caf5add77f44db7fa2db1c0caeede45eefef5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,003
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,862
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,003 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe1b6…eb45backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 2c | 1,445$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed Yes | 8c | 1,187$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.49 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 3c | 1,172$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 2c | 1,146$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 12c | 1,114$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.26 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…05e9backed Yes | 5c | 803.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 8c | 750$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 19c | 745.57$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.9 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e55…41fcbacked Yes | 6c | 688.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x966a…4d34backed Yes | 20c | 507.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 10c | 499.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 424.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked Yes | 10c | 349.16$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.67 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09f4…b7cfbacked Yes | 7c | 348$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 5c | 234.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1246…6192backed Yes | 10c | 228$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e63…5ebfbacked Yes | 9c | 212.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7098…d87bbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked No | 77c | 192.51$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4a…ac42backed Yes | 7c | 184.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae2c…0bbdbacked Yes | 7c | 162$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 12cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed83…d308backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe261…0c64backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump issue less than 25 executive orders in his first week?this page
- Will Donald Trump issue 100 or more executive orders in his first week?No won
- Will Donald Trump issue 25-49 executive orders in his first week?Yes won
- Will Donald Trump issue 50-74 executive orders in his first week?No won
- Will Donald Trump issue 75-99 executive orders in his first week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.