NHL · resolved market
Spread: Capitals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a69dd3d15b11877563803152d536857cd18a8a4cfc5a9f293f7196bdfb25141
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sharksof Capitals, Sharks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,189
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,189 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Capitals | 39c | 3,980$1,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,566.67 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Sharks | 60c | 3,931$2,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,572.4 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Sharks | 61c | 3,574$2,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,393.86 | 331 | 51.7%171 W · 160 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Capitals | 40c | 3,531$1,412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,412.4 | 566 | 49.5%280 W · 286 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Sharks | 60c | 1,826$1,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$732.95 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…b3d4backed Capitals | 40c | 1,650$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…6ad4backed Capitals | 41c | 1,540$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Sharks | 60c | 1,052$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.56 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f6…d5d8backed Capitals | 41c | 1,050$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…5df2backed Sharks | 59c | 880$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.8 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…1b96backed Sharks | 62c | 819.96$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.59 | 200 | 47.5%95 W · 105 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Capitals | 39c | 617$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.38 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Sharks | 59c | 500$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205 | 196 | 45.9%90 W · 106 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…403abacked Sharks | 59c | 460$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e8c…38babacked Sharks | 59c | 360$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Capitals | 39c | 360$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.4 | 470 | 51.5%242 W · 228 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8861…e19fbacked Capitals | 41c | 341.46$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966d…eaa5backed Sharks | 59c | 260$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.6 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…8b56backed Capitals | 41c | 242.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…0c4ebacked Sharks | 59c | 230$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Capitals | 41c | 217.02$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.98 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Capitals | 33c | 199.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Capitals | 40c | 187.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 201 | 45.8%92 W · 109 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Capitals | 38c | 180.04$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.42 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Capitals | 41c | 169.49$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.49 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -8.8wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Sharks | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…107fbacked Sharks | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Capitals | 40c | 165.36$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.84 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…1d47backed Sharks | 63c | 149.04$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.14 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Sharks | 58c | 144.47$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.68 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6a…86bbbacked Capitals | 37c | 144.04$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.29 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Sharks | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf67…fc18backed Capitals | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1de6…fdb3backed Capitals | 38c | 65.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Capitals | 40c | 64.02$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6460…84efbacked Capitals | 41c | 60.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Capitals | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Capitals | 40c | 40.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Sharks | 60c | 37.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc151…99e5backed Capitals | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a15…0f18backed Capitals | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Sharks | 54c | 21.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 349 | 49.9%174 W · 175 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)this page
- Sharks vs. CapitalsSharks won
- Sharks vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.