NHL · resolved market
Sharks vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99548ae9d7cc67c51537eac766c34acf4a8b8afa2d39acd84a84db3e4f82cfa6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,418
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,399
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,418 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaa07…2125backed Over | 54c | 46,451$24,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,883.4 | 1,070 | 49.9%534 W · 536 L | +22.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 46c | 21,510$9,927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,582.23 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Under | 47c | 17,514$8,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,211.65 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Under | 47c | 5,596$2,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,965.99 | 221 | 50.2%111 W · 110 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Under | 52c | 5,094$2,649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,445.22 | 333 | 45.6%152 W · 181 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Under | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,450 | 331 | 51.7%171 W · 160 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 46c | 3,537$1,631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,906.12 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 2,711$1,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,409.93 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Over | 48c | 2,475$1,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,187.76 | 170 | 57.6%98 W · 72 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 50c | 2,382$1,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,191 | 119 | 53.8%64 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…5344backed Over | 51c | 2,098$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,069.98 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 619 | 53.8%333 W · 286 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 49c | 1,999$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979.56 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ad…45f9backed Over | 53c | 1,516$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.41 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -5.8wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -30%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 48c | 1,245$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.58 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 52c | 1,155$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.68 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 51c | 1,071$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.74 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 43c | 1,057$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.59 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Over | 52c | 1,013$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.84 | 428 | 47.2%202 W · 226 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Over | 52c | 850.99$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.51 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 49c | 838.22$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.49 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 537.09$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.46 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 48c | 536.58$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.81 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 49c | 506$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.06 | 182 | 62.1%113 W · 69 L | +15.6wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 51c | 500.49$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.25 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed Under | 52c | 497.44$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.77 | 445 | 51.2%228 W · 217 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37f8…b5e5backed Under | 52c | 480.54$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.57 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde18…83bcbacked Over | 53c | 474.74$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 46c | 444$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.76 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Under | 48c | 421.47$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.16 | 270 | 48.1%130 W · 140 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Over | 51c | 362.98$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.46 | 129 | 43.4%56 W · 73 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Over | 51c | 358.82$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8791…4c9abacked Under | 51c | 315.69$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.69 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…e9b4backed Over | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4842…b2f4backed Over | 34c | 257$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.19 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Under | 46c | 205$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.7 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Under | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 309 | 52.4%162 W · 147 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 51c | 182.74$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.2 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked Under | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 152 | 57.2%87 W · 65 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Under | 47c | 147.77$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.32 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 47c | 138$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.14 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 69c | 118.81$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.19 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 784 | 43.8%343 W · 441 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…ec91backed Under | 49c | 105$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a64…6769backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +12.6wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x15e3…009fbacked Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 388 | 57.2%222 W · 166 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 46c | 98.24$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.05 | 224 | 43.3%97 W · 127 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8c…237dbacked Under | 44c | 81$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed Under | 53c | 77$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 106 | 67.9%72 W · 34 L | +16.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 52c | 75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Under | 48c | 73.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Over | 37c | 69.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 67c | 65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…259dbacked Over | 49c | 63.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Under | 47c | 62.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 51c | 61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 52c | 56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…b14cbacked Under | 47c | 55.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.66 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Under | 47c | 55.4$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Under | 47c | 50.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 167 | 56.3%94 W · 73 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…0f30backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 47c | 46.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb343…61afbacked Under | 50c | 45.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Under | 49c | 40.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 104 | 50%52 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 48c | 39.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f91…8065backed Under | 52c | 30.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0e…4049backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca6…9a97backed Over | 50c | 29.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdd…23d8backed Under | 55c | 28.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…05d5backed Under | 47c | 27.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Under | 46c | 25.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47ba…a503backed Under | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e80…e401backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b2…fba9backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sharks vs. Capitals: O/U 6.5this page
- Sharks vs. CapitalsSharks won
- Spread: Capitals (-1.5)Sharks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.