Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-11-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a81102cff4d226aa11d361f1be1ea3887613b8b1c8564e1cd513f7a03ca86c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,629
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,358
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,629 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 14c | 11,800$1,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,594.6 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…5471backed Yes | 5c | 3,262$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.1 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Yes | 5c | 3,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad4…9484backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 5c | 1,500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 4c | 1,452$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 5c | 1,287$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 16c | 1,152$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.21 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 6c | 1,069$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.14 | 151 | 34.4%52 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x723c…01ebbacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5993…33a2backed No | 65c | 1,000$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bf…762dbacked Yes | 24c | 999.48$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.88 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc998…f060backed Yes | 18c | 842.22$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.6 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf975…4354backed No | 65c | 767.74$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.74 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 6c | 574$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.37 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 14c | 515.17$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.77 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 5c | 503.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…ecb1backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 16c | 475$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3944…6470backed Yes | 6c | 443.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f1…eb40backed Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e90…c604backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Yes | 5c | 293.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 110 | 40.9%45 W · 65 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa2…bc59backed Yes | 37c | 265.19$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 6c | 209.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…885fbacked No | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 18c | 177$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed Yes | 26c | 152.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.8wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf430…675abacked No | 65c | 147.03$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf75…7623backed No | 79c | 65.2$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.66 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…5230backed Yes | 18c | 56.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb855…c1bebacked Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f1…0451backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed No | 66c | 20.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SC Freiburg win on 2025-11-22?this page
- Will Bayern München vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw?No won
- Will Bayern München win on 2025-11-22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.