NHL · resolved market
Sharks vs. Ducks: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a83d5c14948c17b52a7ce6de94707d1c8fabaaa725dda7b7e89bad589c14c5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,936
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,002
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,936 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 44c | 1,691$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744.01 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…99dbbacked Over | 56c | 1,525$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.27 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Over | 56c | 647.05$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.76 | 191 | 41.9%80 W · 111 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 18c | 514.19$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.82 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3028…21e7backed Under | 23c | 309$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.9 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Under | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -13.1wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Over | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…3afdbacked Under | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf429…969ebacked Over | 58c | 166.48$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.92 | 340 | 40.3%137 W · 203 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 57c | 166$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.38 | 336 | 47.9%161 W · 175 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 78c | 161.12$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 31c | 154$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.41 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…702dbacked Under | 31c | 145.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 8c | 129$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 59c | 117.15$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.77 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed Under | 34c | 86.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b83…f841backed Under | 54c | 83.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -65%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Over | 77c | 61.48$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Over | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 35c | 48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…9100backed Under | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 75c | 41.88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754d…7c7bbacked Over | 79c | 39.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 78cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Under | 46c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 33c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Over | 80c | 25.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe65…0546backed Under | 44c | 24.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91bb…ae27backed Under | 45c | 23.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Over | 65c | 18.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Over | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 165 | 46.7%77 W · 88 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sharks vs. Ducks: O/U 4.5this page
- Sharks vs. DucksDucks won
- Sharks vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5Over won
- Sharks vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Sharks vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)Ducks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.