Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a971519728b4b225c019366a9076358fae95594055709372002136c04fd1437
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wisconsin Badgersof Michigan Wolverines, Wisconsin Badgers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,114 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ec1…057cbacked Michigan Wolverines | 57c | 8,764$4,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,957 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 44c | 6,728$2,987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,741.02 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Wisconsin Badgers | 44c | 5,113$2,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,874.45 | 2,896 | 50%1,448 W · 1,448 L | +71.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb44f…8c20backed Michigan Wolverines | 55c | 3,066$1,686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,686.27 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Wisconsin Badgers | 45c | 1,050$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$577.3 | 462 | 46.5%215 W · 247 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Wisconsin Badgers | 49c | 636.69$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.67 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Michigan Wolverines | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 279 | 47.3%132 W · 147 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Michigan Wolverines | 47c | 480.12$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.62 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…e413backed Wisconsin Badgers | 46c | 399.56$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.76 | 372 | 46.2%172 W · 200 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d6…e952backed Michigan Wolverines | 55c | 360.49$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.27 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81f3…1f2abacked Michigan Wolverines | 55c | 357.27$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.27 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Wisconsin Badgers | 46c | 243.81$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.66 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +19.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87b8…29dcbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 45c | 229.64$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.3 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Wisconsin Badgers | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 828 | 46.1%382 W · 446 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Michigan Wolverines | 54c | 178.15$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.2 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Michigan Wolverines | 56c | 177.03$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.14 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x599e…0277backed Wisconsin Badgers | 46c | 172.4$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.1 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Michigan Wolverines | 51c | 106.03$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.42 | 1,234 | 44.8%553 W · 681 L | -32.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1480…6e8dbacked Michigan Wolverines | 55c | 85.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Michigan Wolverines | 55c | 82.91$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 218 | 50.9%111 W · 107 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Michigan Wolverines | 48c | 81.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.65 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Michigan Wolverines | 54c | 81.43$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.97 | 1,231 | 47%578 W · 653 L | -17.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Michigan Wolverines | 54c | 55.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a66…2c23backed Michigan Wolverines | 55c | 54.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Michigan Wolverines | 53c | 46.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Wisconsin Badgers | 47c | 42.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 586 | 52.9%310 W · 276 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Wisconsin Badgers | 74c | 42.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Michigan Wolverines | 55c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 131 | 47.3%62 W · 69 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Michigan Wolverines | 48c | 29.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 646 | 47.5%307 W · 339 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Michigan Wolverines | 52c | 23.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Wisconsin Badgers | 46c | 23.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 353 | 38.5%136 W · 217 L | -18.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Wisconsin Badgers | 50c | 22.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-11.5)this page
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-10.5)Wisconsin Badgers won
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-12.5)Wisconsin Badgers won
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-5.5)Wisconsin Badgers won
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-6.5)Wisconsin Badgers won
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-8.5)Wisconsin Badgers won
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-9.5)Wisconsin Badgers won
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan WolverinesMichigan Wolverines won
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 134.5Under won
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 138.5Under won
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 149.5Under won
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 160.5Under won
- Wisconsin Badgers vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 161.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.