NHL · resolved market
Sabres vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2aaff60703d4a7ad1bac5c50df756417755564b13ffc057238b4906670f89adb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,790
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,790 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 2,918$1,547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,546.65 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 47c | 2,787$1,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,477.23 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 51c | 1,658$847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.29 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…7ec8backed Under | 46c | 1,500$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810 | 623 | 46.9%292 W · 331 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacae…6798backed Over | 54c | 1,490$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.68 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…0e84backed Under | 47c | 1,411$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.94 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 43c | 1,167$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.65 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Under | 45c | 1,125$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.57 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Under | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.05 | 428 | 47.2%202 W · 226 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacbe…85d4backed Over | 55c | 1,100$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605 | 201 | 47.3%95 W · 106 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed Over | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 445 | 51.2%228 W · 217 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 48c | 996.46$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.27 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa70b…7a8abacked Over | 55c | 894.55$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Under | 46c | 800$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432 | 270 | 48.1%130 W · 140 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 53c | 587.93$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.6 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed Over | 42c | 522$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.24 | 265 | 51.3%136 W · 129 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 54c | 452$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.23 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 53c | 368.73$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.83 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b61…b7eabacked Over | 57c | 356.49$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 54c | 259.26$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f9e3backed Over | 55c | 236.36$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | -10.0wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -25%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 59c | 213.95$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.45 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef4…763dbacked Under | 47c | 195.35$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.61 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 45c | 185.6$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.19 | 413 | 40%165 W · 248 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 70c | 157.67$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.87 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 56c | 138$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.96 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over | 54c | 135$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.07 | 366 | 48.6%178 W · 188 L | -14.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 45c | 132.8$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.04 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…0852backed Under | 59c | 119.05$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.26 | 303 | 48.8%148 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.09 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x850b…5493backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Over | 53c | 98.86$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 54c | 95.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.57 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked Over | 32c | 87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cf…8a4fbacked Under | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.96 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Over | 55c | 81.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea7…1be7backed Under | 47c | 77.94$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 62c | 73.34$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.84 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 48c | 67.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…d142backed Under | 46c | 58.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 80c | 51.62$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Under | 57c | 39.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.96 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49a8…b182backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 73c | 35.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa684…ca71backed Under | 46c | 33.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +22%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed Over | 47c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 53c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 333 | 63.7%212 W · 121 L | +44.3wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 45c | 27.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 55c | 24.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 123 | 35%43 W · 80 L | -12.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe72b…3c9cbacked Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Over | 53c | 18.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 147 | 43.5%64 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sabres vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5this page
- Sabres vs. SharksSabres won
- Sabres vs. Sharks: O/U 4.5Over won
- Sabres vs. Sharks: O/U 5.5Under won
- Sabres vs. Sharks: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Sabres won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.