Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2abaa4fc50218b1ac6bbe5d03606226983445674d3f3ced1734d55c35ec5f947
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ae0…7483backed Yes | 40c | 2,258$898 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.56 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 32c | 877.78$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.83 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 755.06$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.75 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 64c | 235.65$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.84 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 41c | 216.89$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 69c | 201.03$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.73 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 55c | 186.22$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.49 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 160$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 65c | 149.27$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.24 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 38c | 133.58$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.13 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 40c | 132$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.24 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 127$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.04 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 121$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.23 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 41c | 118$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.13 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 66c | 107.22$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.82 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 74c | 107.21$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418a…64c0backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 41c | 88.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.49 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 88.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 32c | 88$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 55c | 84.82$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 59c | 81.72$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.61 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 42c | 81.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 65c | 81.01$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 68c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 65.31$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec3d…0a55backed Yes | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 144 | 34%49 W · 95 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 73c | 55.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x733c…c0a7backed No | 64c | 55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed Yes | 41c | 54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 38c | 51.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d964backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x989e…aa30backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -7.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 38c | 47.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed Yes | 39c | 47.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 38c | 41.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 32c | 41.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b3…e571backed Yes | 33c | 41.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 62c | 38.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed No | 63c | 33.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 52c | 30.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 51c | 25.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 59c | 25.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 77c | 24.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 73c | 23.92$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 67c | 22.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 60c | 22.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa012…2af7backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 63c | 17.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 75°F or below on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 94°F or higher on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.