Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2abb6ae2001bb275cf0313a263de7e9b16b6329cc556a3552676f450c11e3b62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,835
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,731
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,835 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 57c | 305.23$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.33 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7a…3e93backed Yes | 75c | 294.9$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.44 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 23c | 283.44$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.19 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 28c | 264.35$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.35 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0941…b254backed Yes | 28c | 192.49$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.27 | 119 | 35.3%42 W · 77 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 32c | 178.83$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.98 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 23c | 145.88$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.15 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 141.29$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3e…cefdbacked No | 79c | 139.31$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 56 | 67.9%38 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 131.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6469…d07cbacked Yes | 79c | 126.02$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 54c | 124.31$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.56 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 14c | 113.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 79c | 108.82$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.01 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 23c | 101$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.77 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 94.76$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.25 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 78c | 81.25$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0437…30f4backed Yes | 78c | 80.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 24c | 76.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.43 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 76.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.65 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 71.9$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed No | 72c | 70$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 58c | 69.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.34 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 21c | 64.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 64.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 24c | 62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.12 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 75c | 53.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 39c | 50.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 75c | 49.41$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 73c | 48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 47.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…0589backed No | 75c | 46.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 86 | 73.3%63 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…8f53backed No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 51 | 72.5%37 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 39.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 33c | 36.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked Yes | 60c | 34.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed Yes | 29c | 34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 31.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 35c | 30.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…f822backed Yes | 33c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 194 | 30.4%59 W · 135 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 70c | 28.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 37c | 28.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…42fcbacked No | 73c | 27.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 63 | 84.1%53 W · 10 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 71cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x98cf…852abacked Yes | 74c | 27.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 72cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 77c | 25.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 65c | 24.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 48c | 23.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 73c | 22.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 49c | 22.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 74c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 59c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd3…b441backed No | 73c | 18.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 32cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 76c | 17.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 79c | 13.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.74 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.