Europa Conference League · resolved market
MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Lugano: 1st Half O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2abc90e6773bb57ed1898fd0c92ec303b160b046d95685ff04a5e0757afe6ba6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,287
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,753
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,287 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 18c | 4,310$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,549.56 | 677 | 56.3%381 W · 296 L | +34.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 22c | 2,171$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.55 | 1,104 | 45.4%501 W · 603 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2b…3e5cbacked Under | 17c | 857.83$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…bf4cbacked Under | 17c | 441.15$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.15 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…da72backed Under | 73c | 291.97$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.63 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 69cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9acc…9f44backed Under | 27c | 242.26$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.46 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Under | 19c | 232.62$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.34 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Under | 17c | 220$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.7 | 354 | 46.9%166 W · 188 L | -14.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabd9…dc3abacked Under | 17c | 205.55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.19 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Over | 13c | 162.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 142 | 40.8%58 W · 84 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…c7b6backed Under | 54c | 112.96$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.96 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 73c | 111.26$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.22 | 2,434 | 37.3%909 W · 1,525 L | -9.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa042…cba4backed Under | 54c | 90.52$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 73c | 79.58$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.44 | 1,793 | 54.8%983 W · 810 L | +11.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5974…5c32backed Under | 54c | 57.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…10ccbacked Under | 54c | 57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 76c | 43.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 232 | 59.1%137 W · 95 L | -19.7wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -13%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 62c | 41.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 537 | 47.9%257 W · 280 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 63c | 39.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 195 | 45.6%89 W · 106 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Under | 37c | 30.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Over | 72c | 29.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Lugano: 1st Half O/U 0.5this page
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Lugano: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Lugano: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Lugano: O/U 0.5Over won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Lugano: O/U 1.5Over won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Lugano: O/U 2.5Under won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Lugano: O/U 3.5Under won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Lugano: O/U 4.5Under won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Lugano: Team to AdvanceFC Lugano won
- Spread: MH Maccabi Tel Aviv (-1.5)FC Lugano won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.