Europa Conference League · resolved market
MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Lugano: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa568b7aec303590cca4d65bef1e7172c5c0baa90af3a3be6b7f9fa3929ae3e14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,847
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Over | 69c | 5,103$3,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,496.81 | 180 | 37.8%68 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 61c | 5,080$3,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,082.58 | 414 | 42.3%175 W · 239 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 31c | 3,715$1,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,563.58 | 677 | 56.3%381 W · 296 L | +34.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 57c | 3,369$1,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,920.94 | 760 | 37.4%284 W · 476 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Over | 27c | 3,177$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843.2 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10a6…4d8bbacked Under | 47c | 2,709$1,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,442.93 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 41c | 2,703$1,116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,587.07 | 1,290 | 49.1%633 W · 657 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 40c | 1,877$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,119.22 | 772 | 48.8%377 W · 395 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 40c | 1,250$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.16 | 725 | 50.2%364 W · 361 L | +20.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 52c | 1,169$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.48 | 763 | 56.1%428 W · 335 L | +21.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 43c | 1,099$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.7 | 933 | 41.4%386 W · 547 L | -15.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570 | 1,041 | 48%500 W · 541 L | +18.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Over | 56c | 928.28$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.61 | 1,104 | 45.4%501 W · 603 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa69…02c1backed Under | 61c | 811.65$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.73 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 36c | 757.59$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.04 | 412 | 45.6%188 W · 224 L | +25.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 60c | 725.74$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.44 | 209 | 48.8%102 W · 107 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 35c | 670.63$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.31 | 838 | 45%377 W · 461 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under | 40c | 667$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.26 | 473 | 42.1%199 W · 274 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 66c | 657.59$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.58 | 2,434 | 37.3%909 W · 1,525 L | -9.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 41c | 647.04$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.17 | 1,034 | 50.8%525 W · 509 L | +16.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 58c | 629.55$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.05 | 1,222 | 45.3%553 W · 669 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 42c | 601.89$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349 | 1,200 | 47.4%569 W · 631 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 57c | 514.79$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.73 | 1,219 | 36.3%442 W · 777 L | -18.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…cf16backed Under | 74c | 510$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.6 | 334 | 42.5%142 W · 192 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 58c | 502.46$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.43 | 2,795 | 34.8%973 W · 1,822 L | -86.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ae…d35bbacked Over | 32c | 500$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Under | 42c | 499.98$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.99 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a1…7622backed Under | 46c | 498$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.73 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 33c | 448$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.31 | 408 | 44.4%181 W · 227 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6779…2ff6backed Over | 58c | 346.73$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 39c | 345.1$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.44 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 43c | 293.31$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.25 | 1,793 | 54.8%983 W · 810 L | +11.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x242f…6fa9backed Over | 41c | 292.54$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.83 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x425b…18f1backed Over | 24c | 264.48$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.44 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -5.0wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -60%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Under | 31c | 253.35$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.81 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Under | 73c | 250$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 252 | 48.8%123 W · 129 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 42c | 219$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.04 | 537 | 47.9%257 W · 280 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 48c | 208$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.16 | 896 | 48.2%432 W · 464 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 42c | 205.51$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.76 | 543 | 53.8%292 W · 251 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 55c | 186.39$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.13 | 2,738 | 40.2%1,100 W · 1,638 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x125c…cb68backed Over | 60c | 167.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Under | 64c | 162.47$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 311 | 48.2%150 W · 161 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 35c | 156.48$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 837 | 33%276 W · 561 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe814…8ffabacked Under | 33c | 150.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d0c…10f2backed Over | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Over | 56c | 108.93$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 144 | 37.5%54 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…4afcbacked Over | 40c | 107$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 75c | 106.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 442 | 51.6%228 W · 214 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 43c | 94.32$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 495 | 55.4%274 W · 221 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Over | 42c | 90$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Over | 40c | 86.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 44c | 85.32$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.78 | 429 | 57.1%245 W · 184 L | +16.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 43c | 84.64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.24 | 632 | 49.1%310 W · 322 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeeb…fe51backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 46c | 79.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.19 | 891 | 53.4%476 W · 415 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Over | 35c | 63.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 142 | 40.8%58 W · 84 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 50c | 61.84$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 58c | 61.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 205 | 43.9%90 W · 115 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 33c | 59.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 416 | 45.9%191 W · 225 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 40c | 52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.46 | 749 | 39.4%295 W · 454 L | -23.3wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Under | 41c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…a506backed Under | 37c | 44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58f…cec8backed Under | 39c | 42.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e90…4f65backed Under | 44c | 36.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Under | 42c | 35.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d9…1059backed Over | 57c | 35.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Over | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 413 | 43.3%179 W · 234 L | -12.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 232 | 59.1%137 W · 95 L | -19.7wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -13%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 43c | 33.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 277 | 37.9%105 W · 172 L | -17.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…a400backed Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e8…6d91backed Under | 58c | 26.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Over | 49c | 24.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 388 | 55.4%215 W · 173 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dff…bb1ebacked Over | 49c | 20.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…4698backed Over | 49c | 20.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3171…b991backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 59c | 17.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 308 | 51%157 W · 151 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Lugano: O/U 2.5this page
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Lugano: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Lugano: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Lugano: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Lugano: O/U 0.5Over won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Lugano: O/U 1.5Over won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Lugano: O/U 3.5Under won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Lugano: O/U 4.5Under won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Lugano: Team to AdvanceFC Lugano won
- Spread: MH Maccabi Tel Aviv (-1.5)FC Lugano won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.