Europa Conference League · resolved market
MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Lugano: Team to Advance
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x620596b56bb205d48f6f962778d7b9170d2a3968397944fc1ea18ffbec6a0e4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Luganoof MH Maccabi Tel Aviv, FC Lugano
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8f3…d930backed MH Maccabi Tel Aviv | 33c | 1,055$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed FC Lugano | 67c | 770.44$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257 | 1,290 | 49.1%633 W · 657 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed FC Lugano | 67c | 760.28$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.39 | 473 | 42.1%199 W · 274 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc260…68dfbacked FC Lugano | 70c | 625.86$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c92…9627backed MH Maccabi Tel Aviv | 33c | 540.44$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba2…4d14backed MH Maccabi Tel Aviv | 30c | 517.13$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bd0…c562backed MH Maccabi Tel Aviv | 36c | 400$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked FC Lugano | 67c | 399.98$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.99 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ab…144bbacked MH Maccabi Tel Aviv | 32c | 365.63$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed FC Lugano | 67c | 266.39$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.72 | 1,200 | 47.4%569 W · 631 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked MH Maccabi Tel Aviv | 36c | 263$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.68 | 414 | 42.3%175 W · 239 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41de…deedbacked FC Lugano | 64c | 252.57$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.68 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked FC Lugano | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed FC Lugano | 67c | 190$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 412 | 45.6%188 W · 224 L | +25.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…86e1backed MH Maccabi Tel Aviv | 28c | 177.36$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a2…0222backed MH Maccabi Tel Aviv | 32c | 171.88$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked FC Lugano | 60c | 161.31$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.89 | 205 | 43.9%90 W · 115 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5c…91fcbacked MH Maccabi Tel Aviv | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed MH Maccabi Tel Aviv | 33c | 142.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 241 | 49%118 W · 123 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed FC Lugano | 72c | 119.62$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 837 | 33%276 W · 561 L | -12.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked FC Lugano | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf1…2009backed MH Maccabi Tel Aviv | 36c | 83.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed FC Lugano | 66c | 79.03$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d38…cc4ebacked FC Lugano | 66c | 77$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3be…1015backed MH Maccabi Tel Aviv | 37c | 75.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked FC Lugano | 66c | 70.47$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc056…4d5abacked MH Maccabi Tel Aviv | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked FC Lugano | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 677 | 56.3%381 W · 296 L | +34.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44c7…fdd8backed MH Maccabi Tel Aviv | 31c | 49.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a49…737abacked FC Lugano | 70c | 48.57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked FC Lugano | 57c | 48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 54 | 74.1%40 W · 14 L | +11.0wins | +0.20per pick | 54cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb51c…2e68backed MH Maccabi Tel Aviv | 34c | 44.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe952…3415backed FC Lugano | 66c | 42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked FC Lugano | 65c | 34.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…b4b2backed MH Maccabi Tel Aviv | 41c | 27.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7f…3a59backed MH Maccabi Tel Aviv | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed FC Lugano | 66c | 23.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 891 | 53.4%476 W · 415 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed FC Lugano | 66c | 22.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 2,738 | 40.2%1,100 W · 1,638 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed FC Lugano | 65c | 20.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 429 | 57.1%245 W · 184 L | +16.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked FC Lugano | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Lugano: Team to Advancethis page
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Lugano: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Lugano: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Lugano: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Lugano: O/U 0.5Over won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Lugano: O/U 1.5Over won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Lugano: O/U 2.5Under won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Lugano: O/U 3.5Under won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Lugano: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: MH Maccabi Tel Aviv (-1.5)FC Lugano won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.