Europa Conference League · resolved market
MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Lugano: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9213edd3d25b18a16a14b1198d5795494f35d559616d3bb24442847c5551cc7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,142
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,533
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,142 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x425b…18f1backed Over | 53c | 4,572$2,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,150.46 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -5.0wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -60%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfa69…02c1backed Under | 45c | 3,138$1,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,418.44 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf16e…43afbacked Over | 39c | 1,626$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 61c | 1,626$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 677 | 56.3%381 W · 296 L | +34.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e7…91a2backed Under | 4c | 1,600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0160…c757backed Under | 4c | 1,600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Over | 53c | 1,275$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.45 | 180 | 37.8%68 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e97…8ffabacked Under | 1c | 1,250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 50c | 812.94$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.81 | 1,104 | 45.4%501 W · 603 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2b…3e5cbacked Over | 59c | 558.36$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.23 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…30aabacked Under | 41c | 493.36$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.28 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652b…e9c9backed Under | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 57c | 425.33$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.89 | 933 | 41.4%386 W · 547 L | -15.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x482a…c85dbacked Under | 34c | 406.71$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.94 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10a6…4d8bbacked Under | 50c | 367.13$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.88 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…4d10backed Under | 44c | 365.33$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 60c | 325.76$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.89 | 838 | 45%377 W · 461 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 46c | 310.87$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.53 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Over | 58c | 308.24$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.78 | 416 | 45.9%191 W · 225 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed Under | 56c | 240.84$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.87 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 63c | 238.29$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.53 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +16.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Over | 70c | 228$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 222 | 37.8%84 W · 138 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 42c | 227.33$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.48 | 205 | 43.9%90 W · 115 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 55c | 207.27$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea8…b821backed Over | 59c | 195.12$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 30c | 165.88$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 537 | 47.9%257 W · 280 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 77c | 146.18$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 763 | 56.1%428 W · 335 L | +21.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Under | 55c | 146$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.82 | 354 | 46.9%166 W · 188 L | -14.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…c7b6backed Under | 47c | 129.79$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Under | 54c | 116.8$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 311 | 48.2%150 W · 161 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c1…3174backed Under | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Under | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Under | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Under | 43c | 104.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae3b…e06ebacked Under | 44c | 102.34$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.03 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Under | 52c | 88.25$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Under | 52c | 88.25$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.89 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 46cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 54c | 83.02$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 543 | 53.8%292 W · 251 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…b737backed Under | 26c | 78.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 21c | 68.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 2,795 | 34.8%973 W · 1,822 L | -86.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb18e…8038backed Over | 79c | 68.35$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Over | 56c | 67.68$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 142 | 40.8%58 W · 84 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Under | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…d8dbbacked Under | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 47c | 61.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 442 | 51.6%228 W · 214 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Under | 58c | 55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Under | 58c | 55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 23c | 52.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 891 | 53.4%476 W · 415 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 23c | 52.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 429 | 57.1%245 W · 184 L | +16.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Under | 52c | 45.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 388 | 55.4%215 W · 173 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcd…c00fbacked Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c2…190dbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71e8…2f67backed Over | 63c | 39.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe748…c645backed Over | 64c | 27.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc1…eebebacked Over | 58c | 25.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 408 | 44.4%181 W · 227 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74de…693fbacked Over | 67c | 21.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +216.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…4a8dbacked Over | 59c | 21.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 252 | 48.8%123 W · 129 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44e1…17a5backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +48%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked Under | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Lugano: O/U 1.5this page
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Lugano: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Lugano: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Lugano: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Lugano: O/U 0.5Over won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Lugano: O/U 2.5Under won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Lugano: O/U 3.5Under won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Lugano: O/U 4.5Under won
- MH Maccabi Tel Aviv vs. FC Lugano: Team to AdvanceFC Lugano won
- Spread: MH Maccabi Tel Aviv (-1.5)FC Lugano won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.