Premier League · resolved market
Will Southampton FC vs. Derby County FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ad17d94cd36502a7f565f562f6046cbb8ce6539588de059ffc478a30f3922aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,290
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,290 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 25c | 5,168$1,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,277.17 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 76c | 1,376$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.51 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 76c | 1,314$992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.81 | 845 | 49%414 W · 431 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 40c | 1,017$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.06 | 746 | 44.8%334 W · 412 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 70c | 799.87$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.77 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 75c | 557.85$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.64 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 74c | 510$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.6 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8642…47c8backed No | 75c | 466.67$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…b93dbacked No | 75c | 466.67$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked No | 75c | 321$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.05 | 149 | 75.8%113 W · 36 L | +26.0wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…e413backed Yes | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62e…108dbacked No | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -46%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 76c | 251.25$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.3 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc08…6b85backed No | 75c | 201.34$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.33 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 75c | 166.46$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.13 | 758 | 50%379 W · 379 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac9e…cca3backed No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 76c | 114.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 75c | 107.34$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 596 | 45.5%271 W · 325 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…4616backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 58c | 85.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 768 | 42.6%327 W · 441 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 17c | 68.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 773 | 36.4%281 W · 492 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x713a…258dbacked Yes | 24c | 67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31d…e7a4backed No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 39c | 51.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 732 | 58.5%428 W · 304 L | +46.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…5f50backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…0cdfbacked Yes | 26c | 40.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb17…32b2backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1e…945cbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed No | 70c | 34.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 59c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 419 | 56.3%236 W · 183 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Southampton FC vs. Derby County FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Derby County FC win on 2026-04-11?No won
- Will Southampton FC win on 2026-04-11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.