Premier League · resolved market
Will Derby County FC win on 2026-04-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf7ab918e90e7499eb99f67517654be9b26e6bc286d89d26367de1f45c512074
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,399
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,079
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,399 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 43c | 3,607$1,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,548.55 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf24…15ecbacked No | 57c | 2,596$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,116.33 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 43c | 2,564$1,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,101.05 | 697 | 72.6%506 W · 191 L | +83.8wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 69c | 2,123$1,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.37 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 60c | 1,589$958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.04 | 406 | 55.2%224 W · 182 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 34c | 1,287$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.86 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 531 | 34.5%183 W · 348 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x954e…927fbacked Yes | 19c | 703.17$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.6 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 18c | 550$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 288 | 24.7%71 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed No | 60c | 518.56$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.88 | 235 | 56.2%132 W · 103 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 60c | 518.56$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.88 | 300 | 57%171 W · 129 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed No | 60c | 518.56$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.88 | 115 | 55.7%64 W · 51 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…b158backed Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 79c | 468.74$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.87 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 33c | 342.85$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.53 | 746 | 44.8%334 W · 412 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea87…8066backed Yes | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 27cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Yes | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 29c | 176.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.33 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 27c | 149.54$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.04 | 331 | 24.2%80 W · 251 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Yes | 17c | 139.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 16c | 119.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 758 | 50%379 W · 379 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 20c | 117.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dec…3302backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4541…30d3backed No | 59c | 84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +115.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 101 | 36.6%37 W · 64 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked No | 58c | 79.97$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.59 | 556 | 54.9%305 W · 251 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 59c | 69.36$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 209 | 56%117 W · 92 L | +15.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x713a…258dbacked Yes | 17c | 62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Yes | 35c | 60.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked No | 60c | 59.82$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 149 | 75.8%113 W · 36 L | +26.0wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 62c | 57.31$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 395 | 55.9%221 W · 174 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 62c | 57.31$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked No | 62c | 57.31$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed No | 62c | 57.31$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 167 | 57.5%96 W · 71 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd77…ef21backed No | 56c | 52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked No | 60c | 44.83$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 206 | 51.9%107 W · 99 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Yes | 35c | 42.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 87 | 63.2%55 W · 32 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33eb…b07ebacked No | 66c | 30.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8efb…c73ebacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked No | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 111 | 64%71 W · 40 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91ff…edfdbacked No | 59c | 18.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Derby County FC win on 2026-04-11?this page
- Will Southampton FC vs. Derby County FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Southampton FC win on 2026-04-11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.