Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Idaho State Bengals vs. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ad2e63755fa0df60bb4f8adc7a6b8be6b0239f3a167ac806d23a995092bdad5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Idaho State Bengalsof Idaho State Bengals, Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,893
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,516
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,893 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed Idaho State Bengals | 69c | 968.69$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.33 | 158 | 61.4%97 W · 61 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ae…f107backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 28c | 920$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.24 | 423 | 27.2%115 W · 308 L | -10.9wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 25c | 524.74$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.44 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 30c | 363.05$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.47 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 23c | 335.32$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.84 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 22c | 257.14$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Idaho State Bengals | 67c | 210.12$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.38 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 38c | 193$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.35 | 614 | 46.1%283 W · 331 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f5…8be3backed Idaho State Bengals | 60c | 166$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.4 | 127 | 33.9%43 W · 84 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Idaho State Bengals | 58c | 149.72$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.84 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 42c | 120$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 346 | 49.1%170 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 34c | 114.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.04 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x447d…630cbacked Idaho State Bengals | 56c | 110.05$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.9 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 35c | 81.49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 45c | 76$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 459 | 53.8%247 W · 212 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4350…8560backed Northern Arizona Lumberjacks | 38c | 34.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Idaho State Bengals | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed Idaho State Bengals | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…d6c0backed Idaho State Bengals | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 93 | 53.8%50 W · 43 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcb…8547backed Idaho State Bengals | 65c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…592bbacked Idaho State Bengals | 74c | 17.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Idaho State Bengals vs. Northern Arizona Lumberjacksthis page
- Idaho State Bengals vs. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks: O/U 140.5Over won
- Spread: Idaho State Bengals (-4.5)Northern Arizona Lumberjacks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.