Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Idaho State Bengals vs. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks: O/U 140.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d9487e954e7256a0ed8aa5e9a17d18cc0bdfce3cde5f30cec7be2dad2a622ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $712,693
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $720,257
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $712,693 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Under | 49c | 669,297$327,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327,201.65 | 359 | 45.1%162 W · 197 L | -24.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 51c | 230,000$118,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111,700 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x006c…16eabacked Over | 52c | 178,894$93,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85,868.89 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Over | 50c | 107,160$53,652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53,508.4 | 217 | 54.8%119 W · 98 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc31d…4ebebacked Over | 50c | 103,534$51,767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51,767.19 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Over | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,000 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 51c | 17,500$8,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,575 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe73e…74febacked Over | 51c | 9,805$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,804.29 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Under | 50c | 9,183$4,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,564.7 | 285 | 39.6%113 W · 172 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4366…c73ebacked Over | 51c | 9,000$4,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,400 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 6,163$3,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,039.9 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…2a44backed Over | 52c | 5,500$2,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,640 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Over | 51c | 4,493$2,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,201.57 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -8.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Over | 50c | 2,646$1,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,322.77 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 50c | 2,350$1,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175 | 841 | 47.4%399 W · 442 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d3…30abbacked Over | 51c | 1,505$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.46 | 169 | 54.4%92 W · 77 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 49c | 886$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.14 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 45c | 750$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 497 | 46.5%231 W · 266 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…585abacked Over | 52c | 660.98$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.27 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8738…222bbacked Over | 53c | 571.02$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.02 | 255 | 56.1%143 W · 112 L | +12.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 52c | 391$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.64 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Over | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 270 | 45.2%122 W · 148 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…c254backed Over | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.46 | 90 | 56.7%51 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15f9…607ebacked Over | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.02 | 321 | 46.7%150 W · 171 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 48c | 235.47$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.91 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Over | 52c | 226.82$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.87 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b49…d0dfbacked Over | 51c | 223.35$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.44 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…48e0backed Over | 52c | 221.02$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.2 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb248…3652backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Under | 48c | 145.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 498 | 49.6%247 W · 251 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…9ef9backed Over | 52c | 103.17$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.52 | 196 | 57.1%112 W · 84 L | +14.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…944cbacked Over | 52c | 103.17$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.52 | 186 | 56.5%105 W · 81 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Over | 52c | 102.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 186 | 46.2%86 W · 100 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0f…bbfebacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 151 | 56.3%85 W · 66 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…fa5abacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 346 | 49.1%170 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff0…91fcbacked Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…ae58backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…5590backed Over | 52c | 83.81$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.28 | 158 | 44.3%70 W · 88 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc82…6421backed Over | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 111 | 47.7%53 W · 58 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04f2…bc84backed Over | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9899…a7f5backed Over | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7392…77abbacked Over | 52c | 71.6$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.37 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Over | 51c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56d2…7afcbacked Over | 51c | 61.73$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +5.4wins | +0.28per pick | 46cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Under | 48c | 46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 1,074 | 47%505 W · 569 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…a31cbacked Over | 51c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Over | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 627 | 53%332 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865a…901bbacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 125 | 60%75 W · 50 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38db…d245backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.31per pick | 53cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x08b6…7db6backed Over | 53c | 37.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe33c…6006backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbe…03c5backed Over | 52c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1d…d031backed Over | 52c | 27.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 51cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a3…61debacked Over | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf389…e45dbacked Over | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 104 | 64.4%67 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Over | 52c | 19.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Idaho State Bengals vs. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks: O/U 140.5this page
- Idaho State Bengals vs. Northern Arizona LumberjacksIdaho State Bengals won
- Spread: Idaho State Bengals (-4.5)Northern Arizona Lumberjacks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.