Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ada22ef251fdbf402ec2c5679b96b5be003737588c528188c7de86a36e8047c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,738
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,463
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,738 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc84…a0d2backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 34c | 510.63$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.98 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 71c | 185$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.89 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 31c | 164.56$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.86 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 37c | 150$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.84 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 67c | 130.53$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.68 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 110.88$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 103.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 87.87$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 85.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 35c | 70.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xab36…38dabacked No | 64c | 67.54$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked No | 49c | 64.02$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 52c | 59.84$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 30c | 57.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 61c | 55.05$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.28 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 28c | 54.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0285…9050backed Yes | 37c | 51.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 70c | 51.44$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7510…6cb0backed Yes | 32c | 44.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffc…594fbacked Yes | 37c | 44.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 33c | 44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 34c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f92…7e2abacked No | 66c | 42.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ed…8993backed No | 65c | 41.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8023…cfd4backed Yes | 53c | 40.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 30c | 39.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 45c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 49c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 58c | 33.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 67c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 54c | 30.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95e5…c974backed No | 71c | 29.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 68c | 24.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 58c | 24.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 70c | 23.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc053…6041backed No | 66c | 22.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 20.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 63c | 20.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc293…c389backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 38 | 86.8%33 W · 5 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 70cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 63c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 65c | 19.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 68c | 19.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 67c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 70c | 17.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2af3…bcb4backed No | 72c | 15.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.